Democratic strategist James Carville, who coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid,” admitted his predictions for the 2024 race were wrong and that Democrats lost because of the economy.
Carville, in an opinion piece for The New York Times, noted that while he truly believed Harris would win the election, he is reviewing what went wrong for Democrats since President-elect Trump's decisive victory in November.
“I’ve been going over this in my head for the past two months, all the variables, all the what-ifs, all the questions about Joe Biden’s re-election decisions and what kind of Democrat or message might have worked against Donald Trump," he wrote. "I keep coming back to the same thing."
“We lost for one very simple reason: It was, it is and it always will be the economy, stupid," Carville continued. "We have to begin 2025 with that truth as our political north star and not get distracted by anything else.”
The veteran political strategist said in August he doubted if his political philosophy that the economy decided elections was still relevant. President Biden at the time was facing low approval ratings, even though the economy was strong and improving.
“I’m starting to doubt myself a little bit, because this economy is quite good," Carville said at the time. "Maybe it will kick in. And sometimes it takes a while for people to feel it."
Months after the election, he said in his opinion piece that Trump won particularly with middle class and low-income voters by focusing on their economic worries, despite the strength of the U.S. economy.
“Democrats have flat-out lost the economic narrative. The only path to electoral salvation is to take it back," he said. "Perception is everything in politics, and a lot of Americans perceive us as out to lunch on the economy — not feeling their pain, or else caring too much about other things instead."
Carville, who was the strategist behind former President Clinton’s 1992 campaign, suggested Democrats rebuild by finding new ways to talk to Americans about the economy and to focus on issues that affect everyday lives. He argued that many people have spent too much time focusing on social issues and the president-elect's legal issues.
“Furthermore, it’s clear many Americans do not give a rat’s tail about Mr. Trump’s indictments — even if they are justified — or about his anti-democratic impulses or about social issues if they cannot provide for themselves or their families,” he said.
The pundit added that Democrats “must be on the offensive with a wildly popular and populist economic agenda they cannot be for,” suggesting they focus on the minimum wage, as well as abortion and immigration as economic issues.
And, he urged them to embrace the new media environment. Trump joined popular podcasts like Joe Rogan, which was considered a successful strategy of his 2024 run.
“To Democratic presidential hopefuls, your auditions for 2028 should be based on two things: 1) How authentic you are on the economy and 2) how well you deliver it on a podcast,” Carville wrote in the The Times.
He added, “The path forward could not be more certain: We live or die by winning public perception of the economy.”
