Jimmy Carter’s economic legacy is cloudy, at best.
The former president’s death on Dec. 29 put the performance of the business climate during his White House days between 1977 and 1980 under the microscope again.
I’ll let others debate his economic policies, such as a losing battle with inflation and energy shortages. Let’s focus on home prices, a financial benchmark many Californians think about.
Recently, I looked back at housing statistics for the 12 four-year presidential terms dating to Carter, pondering how White House changes may alter real estate’s fate.
One pattern stood: Property owners should have few quibbles with Carter. House hunters could disagree.
During Carter’s four years in the Oval Office, California home prices jumped 90%, as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. No presidential term since Carter’s has produced a larger California home-price surge.
These eye-catching gains came despite Carter’s nasty inflation headaches, which pushed 30-year mortgage rates up 6.4 percentage points from 1977 to 1980 to 15.1%.
Who could afford to buy? Overheated economies, such as Carter’s era, often include hiring sprees and fatter paychecks—two noteworthy drivers of home prices. California jobs grew by 20% as per capita incomes ballooned 50% in those four years.
And let’s politely say there was plenty of creative lending, too.
Here is a look at housing swings of the 11 presidential terms since Carter, ranked by California price changes …
2001-2004: George W. Bush’s first term promoted aggressive lending practices, which boosted home prices by 82% in California. Mortgage rates were off 1.2 percentage points to 5.8%.
1985-1988: Ronald Reagan’s second term produced a robust economy and 58% higher home prices. Rates dipped 2.2 points to 10.8%.
1997-2000: Bill Clinton’s second term, which was also economically vibrant, saw home prices rise 46%. Rates dipped 0.8 points to 7%.
2013-16: Barack Obama’s second term had 42% home-price gains in California as the Great Recession hangover ended. Rates were up 0.7 points to 4.2%.
2020-24: Joe Biden’s only term has seen a 33% jump in California prices. But the push for an economic recovery from the pandemic fueled another inflation outbreak, forcing rates up 3.9 points to 6.8%.
2017-20: Donald Trump’s first term saw 24% California gains. Rates were off 1.3 points to historic lows of 2.9% mid-pandemic.
1981-84: Ronald Reagan’s first term featured tough-love economics to chill an overheated economy, including sky-high financing costs. Still, homes appreciated 13% in California. Rates eventually reversed, down 2.1 points to 13%.
1989-92: During George H.W. Bush’s only term, prices increased by 12% in California. Rates were off another 3.1 points to 7.7%.
1993-96: Bill Clinton’s first term featured a mushy California economy. Prices fell 8% statewide, and rates rose 0.1 points to 7.8%.
2009-12: During Obama’s first term, the painful fallout from the Great Recession caused 7% depreciation in California. Rates fell 1.6 points to 3.5%.
2005-08: Bush Jr.’s second term saw housing’s big crash as those easy-money mortgages flopped and a bubble burst. That prompted 18% losses in California. Rates fell 0.7 points to 5.1%.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
