AUSTIN (KXAN) -- We may just be wrapping up the second hottest December day on record, but we're seeing several signs of a cold plunge through the middle of the country for next week that could have impacts on our weather in Central Texas.
A cold front arriving later on Sunday (January 5) should usher in some of the coldest and longest-lasting chills since last winter.
Our coldest highs in recent weeks came on December 7 when Austin didn't climb above 48º. We're looking at the potential for similar levels of cold (or colder) lasting for more than just one day this time around.
In the lead-up to this cold blast, temperatures will slowly climb from the 60s for the rest of this week into the low 70s by Sunday.
Behind the front, we're expecting highs to drop only into the 50s next Monday and potentially only in the 40s later next week.
It won't just be high temperatures that get much colder, but we could see the coldest lows of the season next week with signs of Austin's Camp Mabry getting its first freeze since last February. Camp Mabry hasn't seen a freeze in the last few months despite most neighboring areas dropping to or below 32º.
Austin typically sees its first freeze around December 1.
The Climate Prediction Center's extended outlook leans heavily colder throughout the middle and eastern portions of the United States with the highest odds of colder-than-normal temperatures being east into the southeastern U.S.
The Climate Prediction Center has an experimental risk tool that gives Central Texas a "slight to moderate" risk for hazardous below-average temperatures next week.
Some of our long-term computer models suggest at least the chance for some wintry precipitation to come along with the cold.
These are two of the deterministic versions of computer models we look at; the American Model (GFS) and the European Model (ECMWF). Remember...these will likely change *a lot* over the coming days.
For reference, blue indicates the potential for snow. The pink color is a wintry mix of snow, sleet, rain or freezing rain. Green means plain rain.
As you can see, there is some agreement on the potential for wintry precipitation nearby, but other ensemble versions of the above models depict a drier and warmer scenario where Central Texas doesn't see wintry precipitation at all.
The Climate Prediction Center also has an experimental risk tool that gives areas north of Central Texas a "slight" risk for heavy snow next week.
With more than a week away from the arrival of the coldest temperatures and potential for wintry precipitation, it's way too early to talk about impacts, but consider this your First Warning that a much colder pattern is *likely* and that wintry precipitation is *possible* next week.
Subtle changes in storm tracks could make a big difference in precipitation type and whether we're to get precipitation at all.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we hammer down the details that make the difference in these situations.
