Convincing myself that I can feel good about this roster
We all had some good times and some bad times in 2024 - let’s end this on an optimistic note for the Cleveland Guardians.
If the Guardians are willing to be aggressive with promotions, here’s how I see the best-case scenario for Opening Day unfolding:
(Steamer Projections unless otherwise noted)
1. Kwan - LF - 137 wRC+
2. Santana - 1B/DH - 120 wRC+ (129 wRC+ after a swing change last year and his hitting profile plays better in Cleveland)*
3. Ramirez - 3B - 137 wRC+
4. Manzardo - 1B - 119 wRC+
5. DeLauter/Noel - RF - 120 wRC+ (**I’ll explain this below)
6. Thomas - CF - 106 wRC+
7. Naylor - C - 102 wRC+
8. Rocchio - SS - 102 wRC+
9. Brito - 2B - 98 wRC+
Bench:
Hedges - C - 55 wRC+
Arias - IF/OF - 94 wRC+
Freeman- IF/OF - 109 wRC+
This roster would also still include Daniel Schneemann, Angel Martinez, Johnathan Rodriguez and Will Brennan in Columbus, as all have options can provide depth as needed. In fact, I suspect Freeman will start the season at second base with Brito replacing him if he struggles in mid-late May. In that case, either Schneemann or Martinex would seem to be next in line to sub in for that final bench spot.
I advocate DeLauter and Brito from day one for two reasons: 1. Allowing both to compete for the rookie-of-the-year award, which, if either wins, nets you another draft pick. I think DeLauter would have a real shot. 2. Allowing the team chemistry to develop, especially for Rocchio and Brito as the new double-play combination.
*Notice that rehabbing-from-Tommy-John David Fry is currently projected for 112 wRC+, so if Santana unexpectedly hits an aging wall, Fry should be able to help at DH as some point this year.
**Eyeballing DeLauter’s minor-league splits and accounting for adjustment to big league pitching, he is around a 140 wRC+ against RHP in the minors, which is roughly around 125 wRC+ in the bigs. Combine that with the projections that proceed from the 165 wRC+ Jhonkensy Noel gave the team vs LHP in 2024 and the Guardians would look to have a right-field combo capable of giving the team 120-130 wRC+.
For the rotation, I am going to optimistically conclude that Carl Willis and company are going to help their collection of talented arms figure out how to pitch effectively. But, I was interested to see how many innings we can expect to see from the starters in 2025. In 2024, Cleveland was 24th with 805 innings. To be a top 10 starting pitching staff, they need to push it closer to 870 innings, which comes out to around 175 innings per your starting five. The Guardians almost certainly won’t be healthy enough to have five starters throw 175 innings a piece, but can they put together a reasonable way to get to that 175 innings?
Rotation (innings projected by Steamer):
Tanner Bibee - 173 innings
Ben Lively - 148 innings
Luis L. Ortiz - 146 innings
Gavin Williams - 143 innings
Triston McKenzie - 128 innings
This is 738 innings and 147 innings per starter, but there is help below with 97.2 innings projected for both Shane Bieber and Joey Cantillo, and 65 innings projected for Slade Cecconi as well. Again and again, I keep coming back to the clearest need for the Guardians right now being to add one more veteran starting pitcher. This pushes folks like Cecconi, Cantillo, Logan Allen, Doug Nikhazy, Ryan Webb, Parker Messick and Austin Peterson into positions to earn their spots from Columbus and to fill in where needed when inevitable injuries present themselves, and pushes one of these starters to a longman role in the pen (probably McKenzie). So, hey, Guardians, find a way to land Erick Fedde and his 179 projected innings from St. Louis, coming off of a 3.4 fWAR season with a 3.88 FIP. This relieves some of the stress on the bullpen as well as the pressure of having to rely on about six unproven arms to get you to the Promised Land.
Bullpen:
Pedro Avila, RHP
Erick Sabrowski, LHP
Franco Aleman, RHP
Andrew Walters, RHP
Tim Herrin, LHP
Hunter Gaddis, RHP
Cade Smith, RHP
Emmanuel Clase, RHP
Familiar and talented names here, with rehabbing Trevor Stephan, Nick Enright, and Andrew Misiaszek in the roles of Next Man Up, with some of the young starters listed above ready to fill in for relief as needed. Additionally, moving a rotation arm into the pen (McKenzie or Lively?) if you find a way to get a Fedde-type for the rotation helps the relief corps. I feel very good about the bullpen but never oppose adding another good arm.
I feel that the Guardians need to be aggressive with their best bats (DeLauter and Brito) without playing service time games and focus their attention on acquiring one more veteran starter before Spring Training. These moves will set them up well to make a strong start at a run for another division title, and they can then use the July 2024 deadline to upgrade any holes that emerge as needed.
I wanted more from the Guardians this offseason and am still bitter about what I perceive as short-sighted behavior from ownership. But, if the front office can find a way to land one more starter and be sincere about letting their best young players earn roles on the roster in the Spring, I will feel very optimistic about this team’s chances of winning another Central title and then let’s hit the playoffs and see what happens!
