The Giants find themselves in a precarious situation.
They missed out on Corbin Burnes, who reportedly agreed to a six-year, $210 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Blake Snell has long since signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Japanese star Roki Sasaki could very realistically join the San Diego Padres. Nearly every impact free-agent starter has signed.
So, how to they address their rotation now?
As things stand, the Giants have two main options, the first being to add depth.
With Burnes off the market, right-hander Jack Flaherty is the best remaining free-agent starting pitcher. Flaherty struggled with injuries and inconsistency from 2020-23 (4.42 ERA, 299 innings), but bounced back last season (3.17 ERA, 162 innings) and won the World Series with the Dodgers. Flaherty, though, does not fill the vacancy at the top of the rotation left by Snell.
Aside from Flaherty, 29, a good chunk of the remaining free-agent starters are 35-or-older, a list that includes José Quintana (35), Max Scherzer (40), Justin Verlander (41), Charlie Morton (41), Kyle Gibson (37), Lance Lynn (37), Patrick Corbin (35). Nick Pivetta, 31, and Andrew Heaney, 33, project as back-end starters capable of throwing around 150 innings, but neither pitcher would truly upgrade San Francisco’s rotation.
Sasaki, 23, remains an alluring arm, one who president of baseball operations Buster Posey and general manager Zack Minasian both spoke glowingly about at the Winter Meetings. “The Monster of the Reiwa Era” would instantly upgrade the rotation and provide the team with much-needed star power, but Sasaki’s likeliest destinations are Los Angeles or San Diego.
What the Giants could do, then, is pull a move out of Brian Sabean’s playbook and sign a veteran to fill out the roster — and provide mentorship, too.
Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong will both be 23-years-old on Opening Day. Landon Roupp, 26, only has a couple major-league starts to his name. Jordan Hicks, 28, only has one season of experience as a major-league starter. Carson Whisenhunt, 24, has yet to make his debut. They could all benefit from tutelage from the likes of Scherzer or Verlander or Quintana.
As for San Francisco’s second (and likelier) option? Go all-in on the existing core of starters, a rotation that would feature Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Hicks, Harrison and Birdsong with Roupp, Whisenhunt, Mason Black and Keaton Winn in the mix as the season goes along. This route hands the ball to San Francisco’s youth and would provide the Giants with a more concrete understanding of who Hicks, Harrison and Birdsong are as starters.
That is, whether they can produce over a full season.
“We do have a lot of belief in our young pitchers,” Posey said at the Winter Meetings. “A guy like Harrison and Birdsong, with getting some experience last year. The hope is they take a big step forward for us. I know the group feels strongly about those guys. That’s kind of where my head goes first with that.”
And if the Giants don’t allocate money to more starters, they could spend money on position players who can provide the offense with more juice. While the starting pitching market is thin, the list of available position players includes infielders Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and Ha-Seong Kim and outfielders Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar.
Alonso, in particular, would represent an upgrade over LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores at first base. “The Polar Bear” has averaged 42 home runs and 110 RBIs in full seasons with the Mets, a volume of offensive production not seen from a Giants first baseman this millennium (Brandon Belt was close). Alonso would also likely become the first Giant to hit at least 30 home runs in a single season since Barry Bonds in 2004.
That said, Alonso recently turned 30 and is coming off a season where he had career lows in homers (34), RBIs (88) and OPS (.788). Those are still great numbers, but it’s fair to wonder how Alonso ages given that nearly all his value comes from his ability to slug.
Alternatively, instead of trying to invest in a position player now, the Giants could look ahead to next offseason when first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and outfielder Kyle Tucker become free agents. With Wade and Mike Yastrzemski both set to hit free agency after next season as well, Guerrero and Tucker would both fill positions of need (that could change depending on Giants top prospect Bryce Eldridge’s progression) and would be better long-term financial investments compared to Alonso and Santander.
Waiting until next year, of course, does not make the Giants a better team this year. The coming weeks will determine which option Posey and Minasian select — or if they choose another route entirely.
