Kiwiblog’s 2025 predictions

Here’s my 20 predictions for 2025, which I’ll score at the end of the year. I got a low 10/20 right for 2024, a B+ in NCEA

1. National will outpoll Labour in at least 90% of public polls in 2025
2. Wayne Brown is re-elected Mayor of Auckland
3. Floating mortgage rates are below 6% by the end of 2025
4. Carmel Sepuloni will become Leader of the Labour Party
5. Pierre Poilievre will be elected PM of Canada, with a majority Government
6. If Labour stand a candidate for the Wellington Mayoralty, they will be elected Mayor
7. PM Luxon will do a Cabinet reshuffle with at least one Minister dropped out of the Ministry
8. The Government drops its bill to force Internet companies to fund media companies
9. Two South Island city Mayors are not re-elected
10. A Te Pati Maori MP will be referred to the Privileges Committee in 2025
11. Unemployment will peak at or before 5.5% in 2025, and then drop
12. Trump will get all his remaining Cabinet picks confirmed
13. Labor will be re-elected in Australia, but will lose its majority
14. Reform will outpoll Labour in at least five polls in the UK in 2025
15. The 2025 budget will have less core crown spending for 25/26 than was forecast in the 2024 budget.
16. There will be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, lasting at least three months
17. There will not be an Ohariu seat after the new boundaries are finalised
18. Labour will commit itself to a Capital Gains Tax, if elected
19. At least 15 projects will be consented by the end of 2025 under the new Fast Track Approvals Law
20. The Treaty Principles Bill will not pass its second reading

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