The 2024 art market has been a study in contrasts—a year that showcased resilience, selectivity and recalibration. As an art advisor, I’ve witnessed shifts in collector behavior, dealer strategies and auction dynamics that reveal both challenges and opportunities. Looking ahead to 2025, my advice is simple: think strategically, focus on quality and resist the temptation to treat the art market as a monolith.
When journalists ask me about “the market,” I remind them: the art market is not a monolith. A record-breaking sale doesn’t mean every artist from that movement or period is on the rise. Similarly, when a painting underperforms, it may say more about the work’s individual qualities—its freshness, condition or provenance—than about a declining trend. To understand the market, you must balance the big picture with a granular perspective.
The headline numbers for 2024 tell one part of the story. Global sales reached an estimated $65 billion, slightly down from last year but still above pre-pandemic levels. Transaction volumes increased by 4 percent, with growth driven by lower price segments, according to the Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting 2024. The United States held onto its lead as the largest art market, but China gained ground, claiming second place.
At auction, there were moments of extraordinary success. René Magritte’s L’empire des lumières shattered expectations at Christie’s, selling for $121.2 million. While this result is remarkable, it reflects the painting’s singular importance and pristine provenance, not necessarily a broader upswing in the market for Surrealism.
Similarly, Ed Ruscha’s Standard Station, Ten-Cent Western Being Torn in Half achieved $68.3 million, a testament to the artist’s pivotal role in American contemporary art. Yet, this doesn’t mean all Ruscha works—or all contemporary works—are skyrocketing. As I advise clients: “The current market rewards collectors who focus on quality and provenance, not speculative trends.”
Conversations with dealers reveal a cautious optimism. Many are moving high-quality works through private sales rather than public auctions, prioritizing discretion. One dealer told me: “Collectors are more informed than ever, and they’re asking the right questions about market history, condition and authenticity.”
When I talk to my clients, I emphasize patience and strategy. For example, the mixed results in Sotheby’s Modern and Contemporary evening sales indicate that the market is selective, particularly at the mid-tier level. “The next six months could offer opportunities to acquire strong works at more favorable prices,” I tell them. “If you’ve been waiting to add a specific artist to your collection, now might be the time to act.”
The Sydell Miller Collection sale at Sotheby’s highlighted another trend: the growing appreciation for artful design. Pieces like the Lalanne Grande Carpe Bar (1972) fetched impressive prices ($7.4 million), suggesting a new willingness among collectors to expand beyond traditional categories. This shift reflects broader lifestyle trends where art and design intersect.
The art market’s selective nature in 2024 has underscored a fundamental truth: successful collecting requires both strategy and discernment. The headlines—record-breaking auctions, rising interest in design and cautious optimism among dealers—reveal opportunities for collectors who are prepared to think clearly, act decisively and focus on quality.
Looking ahead, there are several concrete ideas collectors can pursue in 2025 with confidence. Whether you’re expanding a collection, refining your focus or exploring new ideas, these strategies will ensure you make informed, meaningful decisions.
Where do you want your collection to be in 5 or 10 years? Define what matters most to you—whether it’s focusing on emerging artists, building a legacy or creating a historically significant collection. A defined vision will give purpose and focus to your acquisitions.
Refine your decision-making by establishing a few non-negotiables: medium, historical period, regional focus or price range. Such frameworks ensure every acquisition aligns with a broader vision, keeping you focused amid an overwhelming art market.
Dedicate time in 2025 to expanding your horizons. Visit smaller galleries, go to shows at museums that aren’t on your regular roster—and go to shows that are on your regular roster! Explore art fairs beyond the most prominent names and cities. Some of the most exciting discoveries are made where others aren’t looking.
Ask hard questions about an artwork’s condition and history before acquiring. Thorough provenance research and an understanding of the condition not only protects the value of your collection but also provides you with interesting, nuanced information about your works.
Engage with galleries, curators, advisors and auction houses specializing in the periods and artists you are interested in. Meaningful relationships with specialists and consistent engagement with galleries builds trust and can provide access to exceptional works, early opportunities for acquisitions and deeper insights into artists’ careers and connoisseurship.
The art market has cycles: auction seasons, major fairs and gallery exhibition calendars. Understanding these rhythms can help you time acquisitions strategically—for example, buying quietly before a major artist retrospective or identifying overlooked works during slower periods.
Commit to expanding your knowledge in a structured way. Read a few significant art books, visit exhibitions regularly and follow artist retrospectives. Subscribing to critical publications or engaging in conversations with experts can deepen your understanding and sharpen your eye.
There are so many times over the years that I’ve witnessed great collection records helping a collection and non-existent records hurting an eventual sale. Keep meticulous records of artworks, including original invoices, exhibition history, bibliography, provenance, insurance values and condition reports. Organized documentation ensures the long-term care, valuation and planning for your collection.
Plan for what happens to your collection in the future. Whether you intend to donate works to a museum, bequeath them to family or establish a foundation, starting the conversation now ensures your collection’s story will endure for generations.
Collecting is both an emotional pursuit and a strategic endeavor. Train yourself to recognize when to move quickly—such as for a rare or important piece—and when to wait for the right opportunity. Thoughtful acquisitions always stand the test of time.
The 2024 art market reminded us that the best strategies combine both macro and granular perspectives. Broad trends may be helpful for context, but the real action lies in the specifics: the individual artwork, its story and its market positioning. As always, collectors who are informed, discerning and focused on quality will find themselves well-positioned in the year ahead.
For me, the beauty of the art market is its dynamism—the way it reflects both timeless values and the shifting cultural zeitgeist. As we move into 2025, I’m excited to see how collectors, dealers and artists continue to shape this ever-evolving landscape.
