Happy New Year everyone. Fine and sunny weather expected at least up to Thursday in the N French Alps.
For off-piste enthusiasts, a bit of ski touring will be the best way to find the best snow conditions as any lift-accessible snow is now becoming well tracked out.
As predicted, from last Saturday night through to Tuesday morning the N French Alps received significant amounts of snowfall, along with high winds, bringing a high risk of avalanche (4 out of 5) during and just after the storm. See here for the danger level definitions. The danger level dropped to a ‘considerable’ 3 out of 5 Tuesday, and has remained at that level for the last few days.
There were some close calls, injuries and sadly tragic fatalities. Generally size 2 to 3 avalanches, as forecasted – see these avalanche size scale definitions c/o the European Avalanche Warning Services. Data-avalanche.org has more details.
People often underestimate danger level 3 “considerable”. Part of the problem is that danger level 3 falls in the middle of the scale of 5, which can understandably give people the mistaken impression of it being a “medium” risk level.
ANENA , the French Snow and Avalanche Association, reminds us that Risk 3 is most definitely not a “medium” risk and provides statistics that last winter, 66% of avalanche accidents occurred on Danger Level 3 days.
Indeed many countries are now presenting the avalanche danger level scale so that it looks more like it has 4 danger levels, with level 5 ‘squeezed to the side’ representing an extreme case on its own reserved for disaster authorities to invoke.
Avalanche danger (blue line) does not increase in a step by step way. It increases non-linearly as shown on this graph produced by European avalanche associations. You can see there is a range of potential danger within each category, especially in 3. European Avalanche Warning Services
The current avalanche danger level is a 2/5 below 2200 m, and 3/5 above that on the European scale.
We suspect that it soon will be dropping further to a 2, which means more stability in the snowpack, but not necessarily safer.
The snow report below from Snow-Forecast.com says it all really.
Wall to wall sunshine due to a high pressure weather system expected until at least mid-week.
A possible change of weather coming on Wednesday night/Thursday, hopefully bringing some fresh snow.
To be safe and have more fun when you’re off-piste, check out our 12 minute overview of the HAT Framework method and the Essentials Talk entitled “Safety is Freedom Pocket Guide” on Video. It contains the key points that you need to know and to apply in order to keep things acceptably safe off-piste and ski touring, and to have more fun with or without a professional!
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