When Bears general manager Ryan Poles took the job in January 2022 and surveyed what the team had done with quarterback Justin Fields in his rookie season, it was hard to get a read on the situation. Between poor coaching, poor personnel around him and a poor plan for his development, it “clouded” any evaluation of what the Bears really had in Fields.
They’re at a similar point with Caleb Williams.
Like Fields, Williams has shown flashes of potential and signs of regression while playing for incompetent coaches, dodging defenders behind a flimsy offensive line and still trying to master some of the basics of the position. There’s legitimate concern about how much he actually has gained from this miserable season and whether his incoming new coach will be somewhat starting from scratch.
Williams would reject that idea, though he acknowledged frustration with himself for not being “able to be consistent all season” and not winning as the Bears fell to 4-12 on Thursday with a humiliating 6-3 loss to the Seahawks.
In the century-plus history of professional football, there have been just 35 games that ended 6-3 — out of 17,908. Williams co-authored one that will go on the list with teams from the 1920s like the Dayton Triangles and Frankford Yellow Jackets. Games should never look like this in the iPhone age.
“Frustrating, annoyed, but learning,” Williams said when asked about his tumultuous rookie season. “I definitely think that this is going to be good for me. Excited about this [final] game and then excited about the future.”
Any belief that this has been substantially beneficial or excitement about facing the Packers next weekend or the future of a team that has lost 10 games in a row is purely faith at this point. The evidence that any of that will prove true is scarce.
There’s an ominous feeling descending on Halas Hall that most of this season, which began with Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron coaching Williams, has been a total waste.
“We’re not really playing NFL football,” tight end Cole Kmet said.
In an interview with Prime Video that aired before the game, Williams cited one success of the season as, “I’ve proven to myself that I can play,” but that was hardly his or the Bears’ goal coming in. Expectations were much higher all around, and Williams said before the draft he was taking aim at Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud’s remarkable 2023 rookie season, which included a Pro Bowl selection and a playoff win.
In the Seahawks game, Williams didn’t reach 100 yards passing until almost the two-minute warning and finished 16 of 28 for 122 yards with an interception and no touchdowns for a 53.0 passer rating. Regardless of the Bears’ various malfunctions, including ongoing offensive line woes, dropped passes, penalties and interim coach Thomas Brown’s errors in play calling and clock management, that’s what regression looks like.
That’s twice now the Bears believed Williams had advanced past rookie-level play only to see him dip again. The first uptick early in the season came against struggling opponents, and he reverted as soon as the competition toughened. He got going again with some promising performances against the Packers, Vikings and Lions, then tapered off again.
Williams said Thursday he needs to “find ways to be consistent and play good football when the ball is in my hand.” That’s a key phrase at the end. No matter what is wrong with the Bears, the ball is in his hand at the end. He makes the final decision on where the ball goes or doesn’t go. Elite quarterbacks find a way score more than three points even in unfavorable circumstances
The new coach’s job will be to sort out which games are more reflective of the player Williams truly is. Is there enough concrete in his good outings to build from and guide him to a breakout in 2025, or are his struggles with footwork, decisiveness in the pocket and grasp of things he can no longer get away with now that he’s out of college going to require a total makeover?
The problem with Williams’ night against the Seahawks is that it wasn’t an aberration. He’s had six games with a passer rating under 70, including two in the second half of the season. It was the third time in four games he passed for fewer than 200 yards.
The Bears’ offense punted on its first five possessions against the 49ers to begin the month, opened by punting, fumbling or turning it over five times against the Vikings and started with four punts or lost fumbles against the Lions, then punted seven of the first eight possessions in the loss to the Seahawks.
Fields never got a pass for things like that, even as a rookie, and Williams doesn’t, either. His 87.4 passer rating for the season, albeit as a rookie, is barely better than the 86.3 that got Fields sent out of town, so this has to be merely a starting point. Williams and the new coach must untangle this mess to make sure he’s not still playing like a rookie next season.
