Japan and China are seeking to improve relations ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, but analysts say Beijing’s aggressive military activities across the Indo-Pacific region will make it hard for the sides to reduce longstanding tensions.
“Tokyo does want to have smoother ties with Beijing, given the likely tumultuousness of the U.S.-China relationship and also the global situation more broadly once Trump comes into office,” said Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.
“However, the basic positions of both countries are too far apart, and as long as Beijing continues to make claims on the East China Sea and is demonstrating its ability to use military force to pursue those ends, it’s difficult for China and Japan to pursue a fundamental reset in bilateral relations,” he told VOA by phone.
Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Wednesday. Both sides agreed to facilitate a visit by Wang to Japan in 2025 and improve relations on a basic societal level.
“China and Japan should also strengthen people-to-people exchanges, consolidate public support for China-Japan friendship, and properly handle disputes and differences,” Wang said on Wednesday, adding that Tokyo should “calibrate its strategic perception” and “pursue a positive policy toward China.”
While Beijing focused largely on the positive aspect of the meeting, Iwaya reiterated Tokyo’s concerns about the increased Chinese military activities in areas near Japan and Japanese citizens’ safety in China during his meeting with Wang.
Iwaya “expressed Japan's serious concerns about the situation in the East China Sea, including the situation surrounding the Senkaku Islands, and the intensification of Chinese military activities,” the Japanese foreign ministry said in a statement released on Wednesday.
Despite these concerns, Iwaya and Wang agreed to hold a high-level economic dialogue and organize the Japan-China Security Dialogue to improve communication over security issues.
Experts say Japan believes it can extract “some positive goods” from China because of Beijing’s increasing concern about the incoming Trump administration.
“Tokyo sees the Trump administration as likely being very difficult on China in terms of tariffs and security issues, and they understand they may have a little bit more leverage now,” Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at Tokyo's International Christian University, told VOA by phone.
He said because China remains committed to reshaping the security environment in its surrounding region, Japan is focusing on securing short-term gains in improving ties rather than resetting the relationship.
“They believe there might be an opportunity to extract some positive goods from the Chinese, whether it’s business or increasing the flows of people between the two,” Nagy added.
Countries dispute Fukushima discharge
One of the main disputes between China and Japan is Tokyo’s discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant. Beijing has repeatedly opposed Tokyo’s move and imposed bans on the import of Japanese seafood.
While both governments agreed on steps that would allow stakeholders like China to independently sample the treated waters in September, Wang and Iwaya’s discussion on the topic didn’t show signs of Beijing’s import ban being eased.
“Wang reiterated China's opposition to Japan's ocean discharge of Fukushima nuclear-contaminated water, stressing that Japan should fulfill its international obligations and commitments to China, establish a long-term international monitoring mechanism, and allow China to sample and test independently,” Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times reported on Wednesday.
Despite China's continuation of the ban on Japanese seafood, Nagy said China will still try to seize this chance to strengthen relations with Japan and possibly weaken Washington-Tokyo ties.
“The Chinese government has a long track record of using economic incentives to drive a wedge between Washington and Tokyo, but since Japan has seen these strategies for decades and the Chinese economy is in decline, whether Beijing’s efforts can translate into sustainable changes is a different story,” he told VOA.
Japan will prioritize US ties, says political scientist
While Japan seeks to smooth ties with China, Chong in Singapore said the relationship with the U.S. will still be Tokyo’s priority once Trump returns to the White House in January.
“Tokyo will align [with the U.S.] as much as it can because the Japanese economy is very much tied with the U.S. economy,” he told VOA.
During a press conference on Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he wanted Japan to bolster its alliance with the U.S.
“I think it's important to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance even further ... and share a common understanding of the situation in northeast Asia,” he said.
Although the relationship with the U.S. remains a priority for Japan, Nagy said Tokyo will still try to influence how U.S.-China competition develops under the second Trump administration.
“Japan will try to convey to Washington that their relationship with China isn’t simple because they can’t simply cut off the relations and over-securitize the relationship since Beijing remains a neighbor that is not going away,” he told VOA.
“When Tokyo engages with the U.S., it’s a relationship of cooperation, coordination, and an attempt to influence the decision-making process in Washington so that they don’t take an over-securitized approach to the competition with China,” Nagy added.
