Breaking Down the Mets Rotation’s Steamer Projections

Much like this past season, the Mets enter 2025 with a lot of question marks surrounding the rotation. They recently agreed to re-sign Sean Manaea, but will bank on Kodai Senga returning to form after an injury-riddled season, Frankie Montas hoping to build off some late-season improvement, and Clay Holmes becoming a starter for the first time since 2018. Taking a look at Fangraphs’ projections for the rotation though, the situation may not be as scary as it seems.

Steamer Projections

• Sean Manaea: 181 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 2.0 fWAR
• Kodai Senga: 165 2/3 IP, 3.73 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 2.6 fWAR
• Clay Holmes: 144 IP, 3.52 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.9 fWAR
• Frankie Montas: 154 2/3 IP, 4.05 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 1.8 fWAR
• David Peterson: 154 IP, 3.67 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 1.7 fWAR
• Paul Blackburn: 111 2/3 IP, 4.04 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 0.9 fWAR

While the model expects Manaea and Peterson to take a step back, it expects to see improvement from Montas and Blackburn, as well as a bit of a bounce back for Senga. The model also believes Holmes will turn into a solid starting pitcher – his 57% projected ground-ball rate leads the club by a healthy margin (Peterson is second at 50%). Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning are both projected to mostly work out of the bullpen, with the model particularly liking Megill with a 3.47 ERA. The model has these six pitchers posting a cumulative ERA of 3.84 – which is lower than the rotation’s 2024 mark of 3.91.

Thoughts

The model is a little harsh on Manaea – while his xERA, FIP, and xFIP were all higher than his 3.47 ERA in 2024, he had a 3.09 ERA and 3.35 FIP from July 30 to the end of the season. It’s reasonable to expect Montas to take a step forward in 2025, as his strikeout rate jumped nearly 10% after a midseason trade to the Brewers. Senga had a 3.87 ERA in 2023, and it’s tough to place expectations on him after he missed most of 2024, but most Mets fans would sign up for what Fangraphs is projecting. The Mets should still be in the market for another arm or two, but their rotation is a solid spot right now.

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