New York City is bracing for a chaotic mayoral race next year, with the sitting mayor facing a criminal indictment and an increasing number of candidates throwing their hat in the ring to challenge him.
Mayor Eric Adams (D) has vowed to continue with his reelection bid in 2025 despite the charges accusing him of bribery, wire fraud and soliciting a contribution by a foreign national. He has pleaded not guilty and said his focus is on governing the city, but more than a half dozen other Democrats have entered the primary set for June.
With numerous other candidates rumored to be considering a bid, including controversial former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), the race is poised to only get messier.
New York strategists said voters are likely to elevate whichever candidate can best convince them that they care about their day-to-day issues and is willing to take steps to shake up the status quo.
“I think the appetite for disruptive politics is going to be with us through the mayoral election,” Democratic strategist Basil Smikle said. “I think many voters see the mayor as a political disruptor.”
Adams was already facing an uncertain electoral future heading into next year despite his successful 2021 campaign running as a moderate with working-class appeal. His approval rating took a dive as he faced criticism over mixed results on crime levels, housing availability and affordability and an influx of migrants into the city, stretching the city’s resources.
But he’s now facing an even larger obstacle in the aftermath of accusations that he accepted bribes from businessmen and a Turkish government official in exchange for various alleged favors. He became the first sitting mayor of New York City to be criminally charged in office.
Stories of alleged corruption in Adams’s administration have stayed in the news as FBI agents have conducted searches at the homes of several other members in recent months. Most recently, prosecutors charged his former top aide, Ingrid Lewis-Martin, and her son with bribery on Thursday.
A Marist College poll shortly after the indictment found nearly 70 percent of respondents wanted Adams to resign, but he has shown no indication of doing so or dropping his reelection bid.
Adams’s trial is currently scheduled for April, just two months before the primary will be held.
In the meantime, various other Democratic contenders haven’t been shy about jumping in the race to challenge him, both before and after the indictment was handed up.
The field includes several prominent current and former citywide officials and legislators, like City Comptroller Brad Lander, former Comptroller Scott Stringer, state Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos, state Assembly member Zohran Mamdani and former Assembly member Michael Blake. Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson is also running.
Democratic strategists were split on whether Adams has any viable future in the election given the political hurdles he’s facing in addition to the legal ones.
“No,” said a New York-based Democratic strategist on whether Adams has a chance in the election. “That’s as short and sweet as it can be.”
Adams’s campaign was dealt a blow Monday when the city’s Campaign Finance Board denied his request for millions of dollars in matching funds from the city on grounds of the allegations against him, including alleged campaign finance violations during his 2021 campaign, and his campaign not complying with the board’s inquiries into his conduct.
His fundraising dropped sharply to almost nothing after his indictment, receiving just a single donation of $250 in the two and a half weeks after the charges were unveiled. Adams said he slowed fundraising after meeting his target as he will have enough to meet his spending limit for the primary.
His totals for the last quarter of 2024 will be revealed in the new year.
All of this comes as Adams has appeared to become closer to incoming President Trump. He was seen briefly with the president-elect at a UFC fight earlier this month and met with Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan.
Adams has argued his moves are about representing the city and ensuring strong relationships are in place with the incoming administration, but it has spurred talks of Adams possibly seeking a pardon from Trump.
Adams also denied speculation that he could find a new home in the GOP after he initially avoided saying if he would definitely run as a Democrat.
His competitors within the Democratic primary have been quick to pounce on him over his legal challenges and courting of Trump. But Adams does still have some built-in advantages as the incumbent, and the strategist said they don’t believe any of the current candidates have the “caliber” to defeat him, leaving a hole for other candidates to get in the race.
“More so than nature, politics abhors a vacuum,” the strategist said. “People will see opportunity and jump at the chance to run in this race.”
The most prominent name by far being floated is Cuomo, who served as governor of New York for a decade before resigning in 2021 following investigations into numerous allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied.
He also faced scrutiny over accusations his administration covered up the number of deaths in nursing homes amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Even with the controversies, strategists said Cuomo’s possible entry would “significantly” shake up the race and he couldn’t be ignored.
Smikle, a former executive director of the state party, said he believes Cuomo still has some amount of support particularly among those who are looking for a “good manager” and “good governance.”
Cuomo received widespread acclaim during the early days of the pandemic as a leader in responding to the virus and was even floated as a possible presidential contender over his record as governor before becoming embroiled in the controversies.
“I think particularly among white and more moderate voters in the city, a lot of them that are focused on good management. I think Andrew still has some support there,” Smikle said.
The Republican side of the race is much quieter currently, though a few candidates have expressed interest. That includes 2021 GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa, City Council Minority Leader Joe Borelli and radio host and former mayoral candidate John Catsimatidis.
Republican strategist Matt Coleman said he isn’t sure who would potentially come out of the GOP side, noting that Sliwa lost “handily” and Catsimatidis appears to be the subject of “will he, won’t he” speculation.
The New York Post reported that Borelli has told confidants he would only run if Adams resigns, triggering a special election, rather than facing him head-on in 2025 as a significant underdog.
But Coleman hinted that Adams may have a path in the Republican column with his appeal and the gains that Trump made in the city in this year’s presidential race, while several of Adams’s Democratic challengers run to his left.
He also noted the history that the city has of electing Republican mayors, like Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, who later became an independent.
“I think that a lot of the left-wing policies that have been enacted in New York got a little blowback at the polls,” Coleman said, noting that Adams isn’t tied to that.
“[Adams] is a guy who is committed to, throughout his term so far, the saying from City Hall has been we’re the ‘GSD,’ the ‘Get Stuff Done’ administration,” he said. “And that's great. And that message appeals to a lot of folks because ... the concept of inertia, especially in New York, is a big thing.”
