Israeli aggression against Syria elevating regional risks – Middle East expert

Murad Sadygzade has warned that the latest developments could lead to the country’s disintegration and a resurgence of terrorist groups

Israel’s growing military involvement in Syria risks destabilizing the entire region, Middle East expert Murad Sadygzade has told RT. He also predicted that Moscow would not mediate between various regional powers at this point, unless explicitly invited to do so.

Earlier this month, Syrian opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) Islamists launched a surprise offensive, taking over much of the country in a matter of days. The government forces offered little to no resistance, with former President Bashar Assad fleeing to Russia, where he was granted asylum.

Following this, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) advanced from the Golan Heights deeper into Syria, expanding the territory they have been occupying since 1967. The buffer zone established under a 1974 disengagement agreement is now under de facto Israeli control.

Sadygzade, the president of the Middle East Studies Center and a visiting lecturer at the HSE University in Moscow, told RT that since Hamas’ deadly incursion into Israel and the start of Israel’s military operation in Gaza in 2023, “a certain transformation of the power balance has taken place [in the Middle East].” He explained that Israel has been weakening Iranian proxies and allies in the region, with Syria being just one piece of the geopolitical “jigsaw puzzle.”

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He added that “Israeli strikes, and more broadly speaking Israeli aggression against Syria, could trigger Syria’s disintegration [and] its further fragmentation,” while warning that radical groups similar to Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) could rise under the guise of fighting against Zionism in an already destabilized country.

“I don’t think that this whole situation will affect relations between Russia and Israel at this point,” as Moscow is no longer a security guarantor in Syria, and with Türkiye now emerging as the top player in the country, Sadygzade said. He noted, however, that the trilateral Astana format, comprised of Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, could prove helpful down the road.

He also concurred with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assessment during last Thursday’s Q&A session that the deposition of Assad is not a defeat for Moscow. Russia “has achieved all of its objectives” in the Middle East by solidifying its position in the region since 2015, according to Sadygzade.

During the event, Putin said that Israel has so far emerged as the main beneficiary of the upheaval in Syria, stressing, however, that Moscow “condemns the seizure of any Syrian territories.”