On Christmas Day, the EstLink2 subsea power cable between Finland and Estonia went dark, prompting speculation of a "hybrid" sabotage attack on subsea infrastructure in the Baltic.
At 1226 hours local time on Wednesday, the Finnish utility Fingrid detected an outage on the EstLink2, a DC power cable connecting Finland and Estonia. It is not known whether the disconnection occurred below the water or on land, and Fingrid is investigating. The cable has malfunctioned on its own in the past: in January, an internal short circuit took it offline for months.
"Nothing is ruled out, all stones and stumps are being turned and we will see what causes it. Yes, [sabotage] is also considered an option," a company spokesman told Finnish outlet Iltalehti. Backup power capacity is available, and the outage is not expected to have an immediate impact on the electricity supply for consumers and businesses.
Twice in the past year, Chinese-flagged vessels have almost certainly severed subsea cables on the Baltic seafloor by dredging their anchors for long distances, European investigators believe. Quietly, sources close to the inquiries have suggested that the vessels may have acted at the direction of Russian intelligence.
In the current geopolitical environment, attention has quickly turned to possible suspects for the latest outage. Future investigative targets could include the Chinese container ship Xin Xin Tian 2 and the Cook Islands-flagged tanker Eagle S, both of which were nearby at the time of the break.
Xin Xin Tian 2 was in the area, but her AIS track appears to show no signs of slowing or maneuvering over the site of the cable break. As of Wednesday night, the Chinese vessel had not altered course or speed and was still under way outbound in the Baltic.
Eagle S's last port of call was Ust-Luga, Russia. AIS data shows that she slowed down over the charted cable during the time period in question. The tanker later performed a round turn, took all way off and stopped in Finnish waters. She was joined by the Finnish Coast Guard patrol vessel Turva, a sign of a possible interdiction. Turva was also involved in the response to the Yi Peng 3 case in November, noted open source intelligence analysts.
Eagle S is an 18-year-old tanker that recently changed ownership, name and flag registry, and she is now tied to operating interests in India and the UAE. Combined with her recent call at a Russian oil port and recent inspection record, these factors may be associated with Russia-linked "dark fleet" operations.
Her last two port state control inspections recorded a combined 33 deficiencies, including issues related to watertightness, structural integrity, alarm systems, firefighting and electrical systems.
