The year ahead has a lot in store for Linux users. Many of the trends, hardware products, and software developments below comprise a colorful mix that focuses on the use of Linux in particular. We also include other current and future events in hardware and software that will influence or characterize everyday IT life — Linux or otherwise. The upshot is that Linux users will see a lot of change on the horizon.
Raspberry Pi Foundation
Since the Raspberry Pi Foundation went public in mid-2024, the future of the successful board computer has been quite uncertain. The share price has been volatile since then, but has held up reasonably well overall. The fresh millions on the stock market open up opportunities for technical innovations for the mini-computer, but on the other hand the project is moving away from its non-profit origins.
Nothing concrete is currently known about future models, but prices will be higher than before. The continued production and stocking of older models, as was previously the case, could also fall victim to profit maximization.
See also: 10 surprisingly practical Raspberry Pi projects anybody can do
The Gnome 47 and KDE Plasma 6 desktops are forcing the switch to the Wayland display protocol by setting Wayland as the standard despite some remaining detail problems. Most Linux distributions with these desktops (Fedora, Ubuntu, Kubuntu, KDE Neon, Endeavour, et cetera) will follow this specification in 2025.
The fact remains, however, that apart from Gnome and KDE, only the niche desktop Enlightenment (current version E20) is aggressively pushing for Wayland.
The Gnome-like Budgie desktop, as well as Cinnamon (Linux Mint) and Mate, still offer Wayland as an “experimental” option. XFCE (announced for the upcoming version 4.20) and LXQT are just starting their Wayland conversion.
Cinnamon running in Wayland.
Linux Mint
The replacement of the old X11 window system will obviously continue well beyond 2025. This is a stumbling block, not least because every Wayland operation currently still has to drag along the Xwayland mediation layer in order to be able to display older X11 windows.
The current Gnome 47 is the first Linux desktop that is at least technically prepared to completely dispense with Xwayland in the future.
Debian
A new Debian version is released approximately every two years. After version 12 “Bookworm,” which was released in 2023, Debian 13 (“Trixie”) is due in 2025. With Debian “Forky,” the name for version 14 has already been decided.
Debian 13 will continue to offer a variant for 32-bit processors, but no longer for very old i386 CPUs, but at least from i686 onwards. i686 CPUs are also ancient processors such as Pentium Pro, Pentium II, Pentium III, and some early Pentium 4 models.
The oldest of these CPUs are over 25 years old and date back to the 20th century. Regardless of Debian’s 32-bit continuity, the recycling of such oldies is usually unsatisfactory.
New Debian is always immensely important because many derivatives are based on Debian and must also be updated as a result — such as Antix, Bunsenlabs, Kanotix, MX Linux, Linux Mint Debian, Ope Media Vault, Pi-OS, Rescuezilla, Sparky, Q4-OS, Tails, and many more (Ubuntus!).
Ubuntu
After April 2025, there will be no more update support for Ubuntu 20.04, unless you have taken out the 10-year ESM (Expanded Security Maintenance) support with Ubuntu Pro. On devices with version 20.04, you will then either have to reinstall or make up for several upgrade stages.
A new installation with the current LTS version Ubuntu 24.04 is particularly recommended for systems that work as servers.
After 14 October 2025, Microsoft will no longer offer free updates for Windows 10 and technical support will be discontinued (EOL, End of Life). As a simple upgrade to Windows 11 will fail for many laptops and PCs due to the high hardware requirements, a significant wave of users switching to Linux desktops can be expected over the course of the next year.
Last year’s Linux growth to a market share of around 4.5 percent is probably already linked to this Windows date. Unicon is launching the eLux operating system for companies. The system is designed to combine security, hardware flexibility, and performance. The download requires registration with an email address.
Windows 10 will be discontinued on 1 October 2025. If Windows 11 does not run on the hardware, any (even more demanding) Linux will run.
Anton Watman/Shutterstock.com
Experience has shown that Linux distributions are generally too fragmented to make concerted and aggressive use of the opportunities offered by the Windows runtime. Only some of the typical Windows detractors such as Linux Mint or Zorin-OS will refer to their Windows-like concepts and optimize them.
In addition, most tried-and-tested Linux desktops (mostly Debian/Ubuntu-based, in some cases also Arch-based) are also suitable as Windows 10 alternatives.
See also: 3 free Linux distros that look and feel like Windows
Open Suse Leap 16.0, the successor to Leap 15.6, is not expected until mid-2025 at the earliest. Version 16 aims to end the technical continuity with the previous Leap, but at least promises the possibility of a direct upgrade to Leap 16. If necessary, an interim version 15.7 will be added.
openSUSE
Open Suse Leap 16 will be an “immutable” Linux. Suse is developing its own Adaptable Linux Platform (ALP) architecture with a write-protected base system that increases security and stability.
The required software is to be provided by isolated containers — presumably flatpaks. With its focus on cloud systems and automated system management, Open Suse Leap 16 is likely to follow the trend of recent years. The Suse system is becoming increasingly uninteresting for the needs of a flexible end-user desktop.
The same applies to Fedora Workstation, which in the Silverblue “Immutable” version is signalling the path that Fedora generally wants to take. The security and maintenance advantages of the immutable concept are aimed at cloud and server instances and mainly have disadvantages on the desktop.
Nix
It is perhaps not necessarily the Linux distribution Nix-OS itself, but its concept of “declarative configuration,” which probably has a great future ahead of it.
Nix-OS uses a central configuration file as a meta-level. This allows the entire system to be reproduced identically (e.g. for cloud and server instances), but can also be reset to previous system states (relevant for servers and desktops).
Package dependencies are avoided because — similar to container formats — software is always stored separately with all dependencies. The concept requires a lot of storage space and the adoption of completely customized methods for package installations and updates. Cloud providers are already in the thick of it, but Nix-OS should still provide some additional convenience features for desktop users.
While Microsoft has included the sudo tool as an option for developers in Windows 10/11 in 2024, leading Linux developers want to abolish sudo or offer a better alternative. The new run0 tool is already available in the latest versions of the Systemd init system.
IDG
In future Linux distributions, run0 will certainly not immediately replace the familiar sudo, but will at best run as an alternative for the time being.
The run0 tool has several advantages over sudo: In principle, it requires no configuration, whereas sudo requires the not entirely uncomplicated “/etc/ sudoer.” run0 is based on Polkit, whose individual configuration is not simpler, but is usually unnecessary.
As run0 loads an isolated systemd target, it is more secure than sudo, which relies on rights masks in the file system (SUID bit).
In addition, run0 gives visual signals in the terminal and window title to indicate the current elevated permissions.
We have barely gotten used to the new term IoT (Internet of Things) when the next “internet” is added. IoB — Internet of Behavior — is more or less a consequence of IoT: the Internet of Things with smartwatches, webcams, health trackers, sensors, measuring stations, and smart home devices expands the data material that websites and apps collect through direct communication.
IoT provides masses of additional data that can be analyzed statistically (trends, anomalies, causalities).
These IoB statistics and behavioral analysis are not only driven by the retail and advertising industries: IoB can provide insurance companies, health insurance companies, traffic planners, the police, and entrepreneurs with interesting information and correlations that do not necessarily have to be personalized.
It is not yet clear which IoB analysis will become part of everyday life in the future. Data protectionists are already warning that there is a lack of transparent user consent for data collection.
In the context of the growing customs dispute between the USA, EU, and China, Huawei is preparing to say goodbye to Windows operating systems on its laptops. In the future, the Chinese manufacturer intends to offer its self-developed Harmony OS operating system.
Harmony OS is based on its own Linux-independent (Hongmeng) kernel. The operating system was previously only planned for Huawei smartphones, but will also be available for laptops in the future. Huawei laptops will run Harmony OS from mid-2025. Microsoft is thus losing a major Windows customer.
Huawei
Harmony OS is said to perform better than Linux desktops. It is entirely plausible that the Chinese IT giant can achieve this for the hardware it produces itself.
However, compatibility with software is problematic. It is not yet clear to what extent Harmony OS will also offer customized standard software or integrate it via a translation layer. Potential buyers of the attractively priced Huawei laptops should consider this question carefully.
TP-Link
Wi-Fi 6 (802.11ax) is five years old, many older routers and devices still work with 802.11ac or even older 802.11n.
From 2024, there will be more and more devices with radio chips of the new Wi-Fi generation 7 (802.11be). The Linux kernel is prepared for this — from version 6.5 to be precise.
Wi-Fi 7 will not only significantly increase data throughput, but will also use MLO (Multi-Link Operation) to communicate across multiple radio bands between the transmitter and receiver devices. This improves both throughput and stability.
New DDR5 RAM modules with higher speeds and lower latency will come onto the market in 2025. However, DDR6 is already on the runway: The next generation of DDR RAM is not due to be released until the end of 2025 at the earliest.
DDR6 will again be significantly faster than current DDR5 RAM. The specification speaks of at least 8800 MT/s (megatransfers per second) for the first DDR6 generation, which is roughly double that of DDR5. Later DDR6 components should then achieve up to 21,000 MT/s.
G.Skill
Innovative graphics formats have been flourishing in photography and imaging for years, but they have been very slow to catch on.
While all browsers and many image editing applications now support the Google Webp format, the Apple HEIF/HEIC format and the JPEG successor JPEG XL still need help from add-ons for software or additional packages for the system on many systems and image viewers.
REDPIXEL.PL
The High Efficiency Image File Format (HEIF) is favored by iPhones for photos. HEIC is the associated container format that also stores image sequences, comments, and audio in addition to (HEIF) images.
JPEG XL (jxl) is the designated successor to the long-standing JPG standard. In 2025, it is expected that all Linux distributions will increasingly prepare their viewers and file managers for these formats.
Experience has shown that the question of which image format will prevail is obsolete: There will simply be a few more in the future, while JPG, PNG, and others will continue to exist.
There is no question that there will be no standstill in CPU development in 2025. AMD will introduce new Ryzen CPUs such as “Kraken” and Intel is planning Panther Lake processors based on its latest production technology (18A). The goals are the same — more performance, more efficiency.
Alexander56891 / Shutterstock.com
Regardless of new CPU records, the new (marketing) term “AI PC” or Copilot PC (Microsoft) will come into focus. In this product class, which performs AI functions on the local device, a fast CPU is not enough — at least a dedicated GPU graphics chip (preferably Nvidia), plenty of DDR5 RAM, and a fast SSD are also required.
The more obvious feature that distinguishes an AI PC from a gaming PC or a powerful workstation is the additional NPU chip (Neural Processing Unit). NPUs cannot process AI models any better or faster than the GPU, but they are much more energy-efficient.
In other words: computer bolides are AI-capable, but only energy-efficient with an additional NPU. Processors with an NPU extension already exist — from Intel (Lunar Lake), AMD (Ryzen AI), and Qualcomm (Snapdragon). However, it is not yet clear how future-proof these first NPUs are.
See also: The AI PC revolution: 18 essential terms you need to know
Mass storage devices are experiencing continuous capacity growth every year. New records are on the horizon for 2025:
SSD: The maximum capacity of SSDs is expected to increase from the current maximum of around 60TB to 128TB by mid-2025, more than doubling. This has been announced by several manufacturers such as Western Digital, Huawei, and Samsung.
Mechanical drives: The classic hard drive is reaching its technical limits and has already seen its greatest leaps in capacity. However, the current maximum of 24- to 32TB should be able to be increased again in future thanks to new HAMR technology (Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording). Seagate is announcing drives with 40TB for 2025, and up to 60- or 80TB by the end of the decade.
Jon L. Jacobi
NVMe SSD: Capacities of up to 16TB are expected for M.2 NVMe storage on the PCI Express bus by 2025. This means a doubling of the currently largest NVMe SSDs.
For end users, the record capacities are hardly relevant and generally hardly affordable. More important is the market law that with new, faster, and larger media, the prices for smaller and medium capacities will fall.
USB 4 is the joint successor to USB 3.2 and Thunderbolt 3 with a theoretical maximum throughput of 40Gbps (approx. 5GB/s). USB 4v2 (also “USB 4.0 Gen 4” and more recently “USB4 2.0”) theoretically achieves 80- or 120Gbps.
The first controllers and drives of this generation are already on the market. Drivers for USB 4v2 are included in the current Linux kernel.
