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United Airlines may be Boeing's biggest customer, but the two companies have had wildly different years.
A quality-control crisis and seven-week labor strike have led to layoffs, increased regulatory scrutiny, and — perhaps most problematically — production delays.
And despite massive headwinds across the entire airline industry, United has outperformed most of its peers, with its stock price up 148% in 2024.
Financial analysts and industry consultants say the airline's strong finances, share buybacks, broad network, and a coming fleet refresh are among the reasons it has been doing so well.
That's despite impacts from Boeing delivery delays, which forced United to offer pilots unpaid leave and rethink its flying this year. The airline coped by leasing planes and shrinking its domestic supply.
Clark Johns of Alton Aviation Consultancy told Business Insider that United's advantageous hub structure and hundreds of incoming narrow-body aircraft helped position the airline to better manage Boeing-related headwinds.
The carrier also benefited this year by refocusing on long-haul flying to boost business and revenue.
"Basic economy is still a major revenue stream for them, and they're expanding their premium seating," Johns said. "In some senses, they're kind of firing on all cylinders."
Among the biggest boons for United has been international flying.
Analysts at HSBC raised their price target for United in December to $116 —about 14% above current levels — citing its international network as a key driver.
"Its exposure to the international markets is well above its peers, and the international demand is quite strong," HSBC said, adding that United's 2024 transatlantic winter bookings — typically a slower period — are 30% higher compared to pre-Covid levels.
Johns said United "has done a good job with regards to the timing" of deploying its capacity amid delays to deliveries of new Boeing planes.
He said United had a strong performance in Europe — operating long-haul routes when demand was high but more modestly on domestic routes when overcapacity impacted US airline revenues.
United has also expanded its capacity on flights to Asia. Tokyo's Narita Airport has been a particularly key base for United, and Johns praised the airline as "tactical" in redeploying aircraft there from weaker routes out of its Guam base. In 2025, it plans to further expand in the region.
United benefits hub airport locations that create strong network opportunities across oceans and the Americas.
Large population centers, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington, DC, and Newark, New Jersey, act as strong international gateways.
Johns said these airports help United target high-yielding premium and business traffic.
The airline also feeds passengers through hubs in Chicago, Denver, and Houston, providing good connectivity across the interior US.
In an October report seen by BI, Deutsche Bank analysts said they anticipate 2025 will be a "strong year of regional growth" for the airline's network.
Johns said Delta and American don't have the same vast hub structure and have dominance in fewer places, like Dallas-Fort Worth and Charlotte for American and Atlanta and Detroit for Delta.
A fleet renewal plan that includes 270 new Airbus and Boeing narrow-body planes, plus 150 widebody Boeing 787 Dreamliners, is powering United's expansion.
Data from the manufacturers show that as of November 30 this year, United had received 21 Airbus A321neos, 31 Boeing 737 Maxs, and one Dreamliner. The 737 deliveries are less than half of the 71 Max planes United received through November 2023.
As it shifts capacity, United has removed the yet-to-be-certified 737 Max 10 from its future fleet plan. It has 150 units on order.
United also has new planes from rival Airbus to look forward to in the coming years, including its first A321XLR in 2026.
United's SVP of global network planning and alliances, Patrick Quayle, previously told BI the airline plans to replace its aging Boeing 757s with the A321XLR and fly to new destinations, like northern Italy and West Africa.
This influx of narrow-body planes could help United lower costs and make the airline even more competitive.
Thomas Pallini/Business Insider
United's fleet allows for diverse revenue streams, including basic economy and money-making premium cabins; the latter is especially lucrative as corporate travel remains on the rise.
Deutsche Bank analysts said United's adjusted pretax margin of 9.7% "reflects the company's advantage of having revenue diversification with premium customers, basic economy customers, and domestic road warriors."
United's third-quarter premium revenues, including Polaris business class and premium economy, were up 5% year over year.
Basic economy was up by a fifth, signaling United's discounted fare has likely poached some business from budget carriers struggling to maintain customers who prefer more perks when flying.
In its third-quarter earnings, United's adjusted earnings per share of $3.33 beat analysts' estimates. It also announced plans for a $1.5 billion share buyback.
"We intend this buyback to be the beginning of a consistent and disciplined return of capital that is paced by our ability to generate increasing levels of free cash," said CFO Michael Leskinen.
Johns told BI that this was another sign of United's progress toward becoming a dependable "blue-chip" stock as it works to reduce its debt-to-earnings ratio.
"I think that's probably the market broadly seeing the positive aspects in terms of how the airline is performing," he said.
In a recent earnings call, United CEO Scott Kirby said the airline has been confident for the past two years that the industry is evolving to produce higher margins.
Deutsche Bank analysts are also bullish, saying: "We believe the solid earnings momentum will continue into the next two years."
