The next few games are a big chance for the Penguins to show they can stay in this for a bit.
Say this for the Pittsburgh Penguins: They have at least made this season a little more interesting than it looked like it was going to be only a few weeks ago.
They enter the holiday week back at a .500 points percentage and are right in the thick of the mediocrity that is the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They navigated one of the most daunting parts of their schedule (at least in terms of quality of opponent) far better than even the wildest optimist could have anticipated, and now enter a stretch for the rest of the calendar year where they get a series of teams they should — emphasis on should — have an opportunity to stack some points against.
Their next four games: Home for the Philadelphia Flyers, at the New York Islanders, back home for the New York Islanders the next night, then home again for the Detroit Red Wings on New Years Eve.
None of those teams have winning records.
None of them are above the Penguins by points percentage (the Flyers, Monday’s opponent, are tied with them).
None of them are particularly strong.
They rank 14th (New York Islanders), 18th (Philadelphia) and 29th (Detroit) in 5-on-5 expected goals share, and 13th (New York Islanders), 14th (Philadelphia) and 20th (Detroit) in expected goals against. The Flyers (4-5-1) and Red Wings (3-5-2) are also struggling over their past 10 games.
Combine that with the way the Penguins have been playing since the night before Thanksgiving, and it is not a stretch to expect some positive results here. I know this team does not really deserve that sort of expectation with the way the past couple of seasons have gone, but I think it is fair to expect something positive out of this next week.
At least, it should be fair.
Especially given the way the Sidney Crosby has been playing and how some of the other top-line players are coming on. Erik Karlsson has been better. Kris Letang has been better. Bryan Rust is on one of the best heaters of his career. Rickard Rakell is bouncing back from last year’s forgettable season. Even Michael Bunting is starting to find the scoresheet more often. The overall team defense has also improved at least marginally by going from unspeakably bad to just regular bad. Hey, progress is progress.
The week opens on Monday with a visit from cross-state rival Philadelphia, which will give the Penguins their first look at Flyers rookie sensation Matvei Michkov. And I regret to inform you this kid is legit and has the type of juice that can revive a franchise. While he has had some inconsistencies so far this season, the overall production is outstanding for a 19-year-old rookie and he is one of the early front-runners for the Calder Trophy as the league’s rookie of the year. He is capable of doing something spectacular on every shift.
The Penguins might, however, be catching him at the right time because he is going through a bit of a slump with zero points in his past five games. Flyers coach John Tortorella has scratched him already this season and limited his minutes through some tough patches, but he also seems to be willing to let him play through it and let him focus on what he does best. Which is create plays and score.
Along with Michkov, Travis Konency is the Flyers’ other player to watch as he is having an outstanding year offensively.
In typical Flyers fashion, however, their goaltending is a mess. This could be an opportunity for the Penguins offense to have a get-right game after Sunday’s tough game in New Jersey.
After playing the Flyers and coming back from the holiday break, the Penguins play a back-to-back, home-and-home series with the Islanders.
The Islanders are pretty much the same as they ever were.
No real star power.
No dynamic offense.
A defense that allows a lot of chances and shots but still seems to make it all work because they have two outstanding goalies in Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov.
These will be two tough games just for that reason alone. The Islanders will have a decisive goaltending advantage on both nights, even if neither Islanders goalie is playing up to their level of expectation right now. Sometimes that can be the difference.
Even with that, the Penguins need to get at least — AT LEAST — four points over these next three games, and ideally five or six. I know it is asking a lot to expect an NHL team to win three games in a row in a given week, especially with a back-to-back, but the Penguins are playing well right now. The teams they are playing are not. It is also a chance for the Penguins to put themselves right back in the middle of that wild card race.
My expectations for the season remain incredibly low. I am under no delusion that this is a contender. But I also do not think it is as bad as the team we saw at the start of the year, and that there is still a chance they can at least be competitive. If that is going to happen, these are the games they have to win. This is a chance to not only stack some more points, but also potentially put some breathing room between you and some of the teams that you might be competing with. Just win some games.
