If the Red Sox rotation pitches anything near its ceiling in 2025, it will not just be the team’s biggest strength, it might also be one of the best staffs in baseball.
The amount of nuance and number of things that have to go completely right for that to happen, though, is considerable. That said, Craig Breslow and the Boston front office are building a very strong on-paper rotation.
The latest move came Monday morning, an early Christmas present for Sox fans, as Boston reportedly came to terms with now-former Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler. According to reports, the Red Sox will give Buehler — who pitched the final frame of LA’s World Series-clinching win over the Yankees in October — a one-year deal worth $21 million in his second season following Tommy John surgery.
At minimum, Boston has now added Buehler, a former first-round pick and two-time All-Star who has a pair of top-10 Cy Young Award finishes under his belt, and Garrett Crochet, who has the talent to be one of the five or six best pitchers in baseball this season.
The rotation, as you’ll see below, has been upgraded in a major way. Here’s a quick projection of what Alex Cora could and might do the first time through the rotation in April.
LHP Garrett Crochet
RHP Walker Buehler
RHP Tanner Houck
RHP Brayan Bello
RHP Kutter Crawford/RHP Lucas Giolito
Admittedly, this projection is built largely around perceived talent and potential in 2025. It’s entirely possible, for example, that Cora gives the ball to an incumbent like Houck on Opening Day, and they could theoretically move things around so it’s not one lefty and then four straight right-handers. That might be overthinking it, though. If you’re going to part with four borderline elite prospects to acquire someone like Crochet, you give him the ball as much as possible.
Either way, it’s a huge year-over-year improvement, an improvement that puts Breslow’s stamp on the organization. He was brought in to fix the pitching staff, and the work he has done with an eye toward 2025 is impressive.
It’s not without risk, though. Crochet is still young and relatively unproven. Buehler has a history of arm problems. Giolito is coming back from his own Tommy John surgery and might not be ready for Opening Day (hence the Crawford mention). Even if Crochet is lights out, as expected, it’s still putting a good deal of pressure on Buehler and Giolito to stay healthy.
Regardless, the Red Sox are in a better place now than they were when the 2024 season came to a close. There’s still work to be done, but one of the club’s bigger issues in recent seasons now might be a strength — “might” being a very key word.
