The fact that Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is still upright and spirited is an accomplishment in itself given the pummeling he has taken in the pocket and various coaching malfunctions that derailed his rookie season.
That’s a start, but it’s not enough. Williams must end the season having shown clear progress and leaving no doubt that he’s on the right track. He has checked some boxes this season, but not all, and now there are just two games left.
Williams is expected to play Thursday against the Seahawks, and it’s too early to tell how the Bears and Packers will handle their Week 18 at Lambeau Field on Jan. 4 or 5. It’s getting increasingly difficult to evaluate him during games in which the Bears are down decisively by halftime, but assuming he plays both games, there are specific parts of the job he can work on nonetheless.
Williams mentioned Monday he wants to tighten up his ball security after having a hand in four fumbles in the last three games and wants to sharpen his pre-snap operation, which includes cadence, managing the play clock and making alerts to his offensive linemen.
He also needs to show quicker recognition when receivers get open and deliver accurate passes. The accuracy has been a perplexing problem all season for a quarterback who became the top prospect in his draft class largely because of his pinpoint precision. Pro Football Reference charted 20.4% of Williams’ passes as off-target, which is third-highest in the league.
And as the Bears keep trying to correct their slow starts, Williams missed an open Keenan Allen on the first play Sunday against the Lions by throwing behind him as he headed toward the left sideline.
“That was really frustrating,” Williams said. “Keenan ran a great route. He ran up, pushed up on his route and then snapped it off. The ball was just, it had a little too much juice and it was too far behind him so he couldn’t react. Definitely frustrating.”
Williams finished 26 of 40 for 334 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 107.7 passer rating. He has a 100.9 passer rating over his last six games and is putting together one of the best statistical seasons ever by a Bears quarterback — he would break the franchise record for passing yards with 568 over the final two games — but those numbers come with a disclaimer.
Because Williams and the Bears fall behind so drastically and quickly, he isn’t playing in realistic NFL situations when he racks up numbers. He threw for 262 of his 334 yards against the Lions after they went up 20-0. Before that, he had just 59 yards at halftime against the Vikings and trailed 13-0 and against the 49ers managed 27 yards at the half while facing a 24-0 deficit.
Once that happens, the opponent is looking simply to run clock and get out victorious and healthy. Defenses sag to prevent deep shots and don’t mind letting some things go underneath and over the middle. If the Bears eventually are able to compete, the games won’t look like that.
“That game was never even close,” tight end Cole Kmet said of losing 34-17 to the Lions. “I don’t know how you can gain real positives when you’re not playing real NFL football for most of the game.
“We’re not really playing NFL football. You watch these other games, and you’re having to get in 13 personnel and run the rock and do some things, not just be dropping back the whole game.”
The Bears went three-and-out with a punt on their opening drive Sunday for the ninth time in 15 games and failed to score first for the 14th time. They’re the worst first-quarter offense in the NFL with just 17 total points, and Williams is part of that equation with an 82.2 passer rating and an average of just 32.9 yards passing in first quarters this season.
Interim coach Thomas Brown said two weeks ago of the deadly slow starts, “If I had an answer to that problem, it would've already been fixed,” and still hasn’t solved it.
The Seahawks present another challenge in Brown and Williams’ quest. While they’re a middling team at 8-7 and barely hanging onto playoff hopes, they’re always solid defensively.
The Seahawks are 13th in points allowed (22.7), 16th in opponent passer rating (92.5) and eighth in creating pressure (23.5% of opponent pass plays). Before getting lit up by the Vikings’ Sam Darnold and the Packers’ Jordan Love the last two weeks, the Seahawks held five consecutive opposing quarterbacks below an 86 passer rating and had at least one interception in each of those games.
It will be essential for Williams to be on top of what the Seahawks’ defense is showing him and adjust the offense accordingly, and this deep into his rookie season, he should be very capable of that.
“I'm a lot more comfortable with that,” he said, pointing to an area of growth over the last few months. “Getting up there, being faster with the cadence and ... sending the motion and using my cadence to be able to figure out what they're in.”
There are the last two tests for him in which he can demonstrate that, and he needs to use that intel to ignite the offense before the game gets out of hand.
