JERUSALEM – Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden still has another four weeks until he leaves office, but he has pardoned or commuted sentences for some 1,500 people. There are sweepstakes for what the total number of will be, but there is one person – not even an American citizen for whom the Democrat’s largesse and clemency might fundamentally change a country.
The move came following the first U.S. diplomatic visit to Syria since 2012. Barbara Leaf, assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, told reporters she had informed Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, whose nom de guerre is Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and who is leader of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS group which led Assad’s overthrow, the United States would not pursue a $10 million terrorism bounty on him for his role as the head of a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist group, reported the Jewish News Syndicate.
Seth Frantzman, Adjunct Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who is a seasoned watcher of things Syrian and covered parts of the civil war on the ground said “once al-Julani took over Damascus and the Assad regime was gone, he was no longer just the head of some militant group. Furthermore, he has made himself very publicly available and he has had meetings with both Turkish and EU diplomats.
To keep the bounty would be impractical and it has outlasted its usefulness. Ultimately, it looks like the U.S. would like to give him and his organization a chance to moderate, and engage with the West. It is an incentive either to him personally or HTS in general to not be what he or they used to be, which is known as an off-shoot of al-Qaida.”
Prediction: Ankara’s buy-in to Damascus may set it on a collision course with Israel. The days of Israel using Syria’s airspace or conducting strikes there may narrow as Syria becomes recognized by the west and as NATO member Ankara likely begins to provide Damascus with arms and… https://t.co/6A3Li67tpm
— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) December 22, 2024
Lt. Col. (res.) Sarit Zehavi, who is the founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center told WorldNetDaily al-Julani’s rehabilitation as an accepted statesman and de facto Syrian leader was “a bad lesson for terrorists to learn. It shows them that if they want to be seen as legitimate all they have to do is take over a state and suddenly the terrorist designation is canceled.”
Frantzman said there is recent precedent for groups labeled as terrorists to be removed from the terrorism watchlist. And in the case of the Houthis to be put back on it. “In February 2021, Biden removed the Houthi from the terrorism watchlist. It was done in the hope the group would moderate. It was returned to the list earlier in 2024, when it became clear it hadn’t changed its spots.”
The current U.S. position reflects its diminished influence in the Middle East, and perhaps the decision to remove the bounty from him is not simply realpolitik, it might act as a counterweight to balance countries that might want to radicalize al-Sharaa.
It is worth noting a Trump administration would also likely have entered into dialog with al-Sharaa. “[Former Deputy National Security Adviser] James Jeffrey and his team – although it never openly met with HTS – was receptive to HTS being a positive force,” said Frantzman.
“He and his team were quite close to Ankara, they were on good terms. Now there are people such as Richard Grenell – who will return to the Trump administration, and Nikki Haley, who will not, who have recently made positive remarks about Turkey. The incoming Trump team will likely be flexible on who the government in Damascus is composed of, with one provision being if the Israelis are in favor or not. Trump has made it clear he wants an end to the wars, and his administration will rely on Israel as one of the pillars of this policy. There are people who want Syria to return as a normal, functioning state.”
Zehavi described Israel’s wiping out of the Syrian Army’s material and much of the chemical weapons stockpile, which Assad amassed, as a crucial step in creating a little breathing room. She also surmised it was an action, which would likely not have been accepted pre-Oct. 7, telling WND: “We cannot allow radical moments to have access to lethal, strategic weapons; it was very important to not allow al-Julani access to those stockpiles.”
The developments in Syria, especially with what looks like the replacement of one putative hegemon, Shia Iran being replaced by Sunni Muslim Brotherhood-run Turkey, will need to be carefully watched.
“This is something the West ignores at its peril,” Zehavi said. “In the short term it may appear like good news, especially for Israel, but in the long term it could be very problematic both for Israel and the West.”
There is no doubt Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has designs on reconstituting the Ottoman Empire and a recent speech saw him openly calling for the conquering of Jerusalem.
For Zehavi, Erdogan has never really hidden his agenda, saying: “As an official member of the Muslim Brotherhood, his intention was always the Islamicization of Turkey. He was even imprisoned for reading an Islamic poem in public. Twenty five years ago it was a secular country, but Erdogan has turned it into a religious state. He successfully neutralized all bases of secular power, until he took over the presidency himself.”
It is language such as this, which might put Ankara and Jerusalem on a collision course, regardless of who sits at the head of the government in Damascus.
BREAKING: Turkey’s President, Erdogan, release a statement claiming “JERUSALEM IS OUR CITY.”
Turkey is now directly threatening the sovereignty of Israel’s capital and hosting Hamas leadership. How is Turkey still in NATO? pic.twitter.com/FY1txMbA6Z
— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) December 20, 2024
