The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Can you explain the 2024 bowl season and College Football Playoff payouts that must have been defined by the court case involving the two remaining and 10 departed Pac-12 schools? — @RockDawg3
Football postseason revenue was not part of the settlement reached a year ago — at least, it was not considered an asset retained by the Pac-12 in the same manner as the NCAA Tournament units.
Any March Madness revenue earned by the 10 departed schools will remain with the conference through the payout period, which extends into the second half of the decade.
But postseason football revenue will follow the departed schools into their new conferences.
That comes in two forms.
Revenue from non-CFP bowl games is extremely limited. Once expenses and ticket commitments are accounted for, there isn’t much profit remaining.
The postseason riches are rooted in the CFP’s current agreement with ESPN, which expires at the end of the 2025-26 competition season.
This year, conferences will earn $4 million for each team that’s involved in the event and plays in the quarterfinals and $6 million for each semifinalist and national championship participant.
So Arizona State’s revenue (at least $8 million) goes to the Big 12, and Oregon’s haul (at least $8 million) goes to the Big Ten.
But those are effectively bonus payments.
The real value comes in the form of a baseline distribution that pays approximately $6 million to every school in the Power Four — and to Washington State and Oregon State under the terms of an agreement reached last spring.
So to recap:
The Pac-12’s assets retained by the Cougars and Beavers include their baseline CFP payouts, NCAA Tournament revenue earned by the departed schools, two years of Rose Bowl revenue and the distributions withheld from the former members.
The total is well in excess of $200 million and potentially close to $250 million.
At the same time, the departed schools take any football postseason revenue into their new homes.
Hasn’t college football already left the NCAA? Why is no one in charge? — @Daniel_F_Allen
It certainly seems like college football is a separate entity. After all, the conferences control two pillars of the sport: the media rights contracts and the College Football Playoff.
But the NCAA has authority over the competition calendar, playing rules and eligibility standards, including the transfer portal — all of which means the same rules applied to South Alabama exist for Alabama, even though they have little in common.
That said, separation is inevitable.
“We’re not a united front,” Boise State athletic director Jeramiah Dickey said recently on ‘Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast.’ “I think at the end of this decade, football will break away from the NCAA.”
The current mess is due, in part, to the lack of a single authority figure charged with making decisions that are best for the sport writ large.
Instead, the conferences act as city states competing with each other for wins and dollars. The SEC and Big Ten are, of course, the largest and most influential — they are Athens and Sparta, essentially. And in the post-realignment world, their hegemony is growing exponentially.
If the sport appointed a commissioner, the two commissioners, Greg Sankey (SEC) and Tony Petitti (Big Ten), would immediately cede control.
For that reason, we cannot envision a college football commissioner in the foreseeable future.
The opening round of the CFP should be novel and exciting, but four teams will end their season earlier than ever. No bowl swag, no NIL photos with Las Vegas models, no fabulous dinner banquets. Do you see the largest bowls unaffiliated with the CFP banning together with an offer to host opening-round games when discussions start for the playoff format in 2026? — Wayne N
This topic is worth a column unto itself, and perhaps several columns, because it addresses the heart of the dilemma facing the sport’s postseason once the next CFP contract cycle begins.
There is no agreed-upon format for the 2026 season and beyond. We don’t even know if the CFP will have 12 teams, 14 teams or 16 teams.
But clearly, the non-CFP bowls and conference championship games are losing relevance.
In our view, the sport should loosen its relationships with the bowl games — both the CFP and non-CFP bowls alike — and adjust the calendar:
— Allow a full slate of regular-season games on Week 0, which is the Saturday before Labor Day weekend.
— Move the conference championships and CFP selections up a week.
— Play the opening round games and quarterfinals on campus.
— Allow the major bowls to host the semifinals on a rotating basis on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
— Stage the championship game at a neutral site in the Jan. 8-10 window.
The calendar for this season, with semifinals on Jan. 9-10 and the title game 10 days later, is hardly optimal and probably not sustainable.
Expansion of the NFL’s regular season and playoffs have squeezed college football in January. And when the league makes good on commissioner Roger Goodell’s wish for an 18th regular-season game, the situation will get even worse.
The sport needs to move its calendar back and play as many marquee postseason games as possible between Thanksgiving and Jan. 1.
How is it that athletes entering the transfer portal can do that prior to the year-end bowl games, thereby leaving their teams short-handed? In the case of my WSU Cougars, 11 starters have entered the transfer portal in the last week or two, including our star quarterback, John Mateer. — Greg F
The window to enter the transfer portal spans the last three weeks of December, which clearly stands in direct conflict with the bowl season and CFP.
So why not move the window back to mid-January? Because of the academic calendar.
Above and beyond any desire to enter the portal early to secure a roster spot, players must enroll in their new school in time for the academic semester/quarter in early January.
It’s yet another example of the inherent conflict between major college football and higher education. Their century-long co-existence is increasingly untenable.
What is the inside story behind quarterback Fernando Mendoza leaving Cal? Did the new offensive coordinator show him the door? Or does he really believe schools that are better at football than Cal will make him the starting quarterback? — Paul S
Cal did not want Mendoza to leave — let’s be clear about that. But he played well enough during the regular season to generate significant market value, and the transfer portal beckoned.
His situation is similar to what we see from dozens of quarterbacks, and hundreds of players, at the power conference level. They all want NIL (name, image and likeness) money for their services, which is their right.
However, let’s remember that some players enter the portal and opt to return.
Put another way: We would not be shocked if Mendoza ended up back in Berkeley next season — not because he failed to get lucrative NIL offers but because the Bears were able to piece together a competitive package.
Players reverse course all the time, and Mendoza has an obvious affinity for Cal. If he likes the offer and is interested in playing for new coordinator Bryan Harsin, perhaps he becomes the latest U turn.
Is Sacramento State a realistic expansion option for the Pac-12, or are the Hornets a better fit for the Mountain West? — @MarcSheehan006
Sacramento State has done a fabulous job marketing itself as an expansion candidate for the Pac-12 or Mountain West and went so far as to set a goal of securing $50 million in NIL pledges this fall. Last we checked, the Hornets had roughly $35 million pledged.
(Note: They do not have $35 million in hand, much less the $50 million that an ESPN report suggested earlier this week.)
Sacramento State is an FCS program that resides in the nation’s No. 20 media market, is reasonably close to the Bay Area tech money and has easy access to high-level recruits. (Folsom High School is a powerhouse.)
But we have not received confirmation of serious interest by the two FBS conferences, which are taking contrasting approaches to expansion.
The Mountain West is hustling to increase membership, having added UC Davis (in all sports but football) and currently targeting Northern Illinois. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 paused expansion in order to focus on media rights negotiations.
Something else to consider: The Big Ten and SEC don’t want more FCS schools making the jump to the FBS — they believe there are too many mouths to feed already — and have made their feelings known at the highest levels.
Our hunch is that Sacramento State will remain an FCS school at least through this round of western conference realignment.
So we know for 2024-25 that Oregon State and Washington State football games are on The CW. What is the TV status for all the other sports? — @brycetacoma
To be clear about the football matter: The Pac-12’s partnership with The CW was for the 2024 season, and that’s it.
The conference wants to combine the unclaimed 2025 football inventory with the multi-year media rights deal that starts in 2026, rather than negotiating the two agreements separately.
In other words, whichever media companies partner with the Pac-12 for the long haul would also broadcast the 2025 season. The strategy makes sense, but it remains to be seen whether the conference finds a willing partner.
Other sports, including basketball, are available in 2024-25 through the West Coast Conference’s existing media partnerships.
(Oregon State baseball is playing an Independent schedule, while WSU’s program will be part of the Mountain West.)
What sports will the Pac-12 sponsor beside football and basketball? — @KoolEconomics
Like so much else about the rebuilt conference, including the football championship game, sport sponsorship decisions have not been finalized.
We expect that issue to be resolved by the spring, along with the media rights agreement and the identity of the eighth full member.
That timeline will give the conference more than a year to prepare for the restart on July 1, 2026 and provide whichever school joins this spring enough time to provide notice to its current conference.
In many leagues, exit fees soar if notice is given less than 12 months before departure.
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