2 is always better than 1 right?
The Seattle Mariners have an issue at first base. For the last three years, Ty France has dutifully handled first base and, for the most part, was successful. Unfortunately, a sudden and dramatic decline in production saw the end of France’s tenure in Seattle when he was officially DFA’d and subsequently traded last July. While the Mariners managed through the rest of the season with a mishmash of options at the position, this offseason now presents the opportunity to address the position in full. Now, some of you may have the kooky concept to sign or trade for a full-time first baseman. While this is a legit idea, the lowkey signaling we have seen from the front office and ownership lets us know that there is only about $15 million available this year to go and get someone. You won’t get an everyday starter with that kind of money - as the Astros just proved it takes $20 million a year to get a guy like that - but we can create one.
Most of you are familiar with the talents of former MVP Paul Goldschmidt. I can already hear you: “But Ezra, didn’t he just have the worst year of his career?” Yes, his numbers were down across the board in every meaningful statistic; it’s clear to anyone who has paid any kind of attention that Goldy has maybe two to three good years left before he’ll likely be put out to pasture. However, the intangibles are still there, and I think the Mariners can milk that for their benefit. While, yes, Goldy is declining, most obviously against righties, slashing an unimpressive .230/.280/.395 (88 wRC+), he still maintains a strong line against lefties, an impressive .295/.366/.473 (134 wRC+) befitting his career of dominance over southpaws. On top of that, Goldschmidt still retains some rather impressive underlying stats, hitting the ball harder than 92% of the league, along with an average exit velocity that’s better than 82% of the league. That said, I don’t think Goldy will come in and knock the cover off the ball and hit 35 homers again. I think he’ll be able to get on base at a consistent clip and be a threat at the top of the order, something this team has been lacking for as long as I can remember. Now, while Goldschmidt would be a great addition, he would only be one-half of the solution; as I stated, his numbers against righties are not great, but I have a fix.
Joc Pederson is coming off of an excellent year for Arizona, and he’s someone I’ve wanted the Mariners to sign for a while as the big lefty power bat that they have been constantly searching for. Pederson is a guy who can make up for all the deficiencies we see in Goldschmidt, with some exceptions. Most notable, however, is that Pederson was feasting on right-handed pitchers all of last year, slashing a very pretty .281/.392/.531. You read that right: he’s SLUGGING .531 against righties. Nelson Cruz, Robinson Canó, and Kyle Seager are the only players to do that for Seattle (and just once each) since Russell Branyan in 2009. If that doesn’t get your motor running, Pederson was also in the top 6% in the league in walk rate, so even if you think the Mariners should be less home run focused, it’s hard to deny that Pederson wouldn’t be a good addition to the roster.
Now, you may be wondering whether Joc even plays first base, and the answer is yes. He has played a total of 23 games at first base in his career, and most of those were for the Dodgers back in 2019, and it was… subpar. In 2019, Pederson graded out as -7 Outs Above Average, and posted a .962 fielding percentage and -8 Rtot, so could use the help of Perry Hill and perhaps divine intervention. Fortunately, he would be splitting time at first, DH, and probably the occasional reps in the outfield as Seattle has Luke Raley to cover a similar role right now. That duplicative nature would give the M’s immense offensive coverage that would flesh out their bench. Anyway, don’t think about defense anymore; instead, look at this very pretty 450-foot homerun he hit last year.
While it’s unlikely that the Mariners will sign a significant big money free agent for first base, and the ice-cold nature of the first base market makes that even less likely, they could Frankenstein together a serviceable first baseman out of some misfit toys. Besides, first base is easy; tell em Wash.
