There are also some fascinating numbers with the Pittsburgh Penguins overtime play this season.
There are a lot of reasons why the Pittsburgh Penguins missed the playoffs over the past two seasons. Some of them were more meaningful than others.
Not being good enough overall is at the top of the list. So is bad goaltending. And the power play. And a lack of quality scoring depth. And so on and so on.
But one of the smaller reasons that kept adding up into a big difference was their inability to consistently win games that went beyond regulation.
Frankly, they stunk at it.
During the 2022-23 season they were 7-10 in games decided in overtime and 9-11 overall in games that went beyond regulation. It was even worse a year ago when they were only 4-9 in overtime and 6-12 overall in all games that went beyond regulation. That is a lot of potential points lost and given away, and in years where they missed the playoffs by one point (2021-22) and three points (2022-23) that is a frustrating series of developments.
Especially when 3-on-3 overtime and shootouts should, in theory, be areas where a team with high-end talent like the Penguins be able to excel. They just simply never did.
As we are nearing the halfway point of the 2024-25 season, that is actually one of the areas where the Penguins have dramatically improved this season, and it really paid off in their past two games as part of this recent turnaround.
Thanks to their overtime wins over the Los Angeles Kings on Tuesday night, as well as the Nashville Predators on Thursday night, the Penguins are now 5-3 in overtime games this season and 6-5 in all games beyond regulation.
You obviously can not build your entire season around this sort of thing, but it is still a nice little change that is going to gain an extra point here and there. As we learned over the previous two seasons, those extra points can add up quickly.
While I do think talent matters in these situations, and that you can have a set plan, strategy and system for 3-on-3, there is also an element of luck and chaos to it. That is especially true when it comes to shootouts. I do not want to write it all off as luck, but it is definitely a small part of it.
Having said that, what stands out to me about the improved overtime success this season is that — statistically speaking — it is not just about getting better results.
There is actually a better process behind it.
Consider the Penguins’ defensive rankings in 3-on-3 situations this season.
While Thursday’s overtime in Nashville was a little frantic and had some beautiful mess moments that could have easily gone the other way, the Penguins have mostly erased any opposing scoring chances against them in overtime.
That has also been an enormously important development because for all of their overtime success, their goalies actually have the worst save percentage in 3-on-3 situations, owning only a .250 mark.
In 25 minutes of 3-on-3 hockey they have allowed four shots on goal.
Three of them have gone in the net.
Basically, if the Penguins allow a shot or a scoring chance in overtime .... they are probably going to lose the game.
That also seems like a fitting result given the way the goaltending situation has played itself out over the past five years in all situations.
Just compare those numbers and rankings to the previous two years.
Same consistently bad goaltending. Still among the worst in the league at getting saves. They just simply stopped allowing high-danger chances. Or any chances. Or hell, any shots at all.
The one big roster change between this season and the previous two seasons is that Jake Guentzel is no longer in Pittsburgh, and he had some issues with 3-on-3 play the previous two years and always seemed to be on the ice for a game-winning goal against (six of them over the previous two seasons, to be exact, while only being on for one goal scored).
That is not suggest Guentzel was a problem or not a good player, or that the Penguins are better off without him because he had bad numbers in overtime. He just was not a particularly good 3-on-3 player the past couple of years and kept getting put into those spots.
It could also just be small sample size noise or more randomness.
Whether it actual player usage, a more defined approach to it, or dumb luck, or a combination of all three factors the bottom line is the Penguins are playing objectively better hockey in overtime and it is helping them steal a few more points than they did in those exact same situations the past two seasons.
It might not matter in the end. It is certainly not going to hurt.
