Can the fragile GOP majority in the U.S. House Of Representatives bear the weight of Donald Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda? Will this version of Republican control of the peoples’ House be even more ineffectual and unstable than it was in the last two years? The early returns are not favorable for the future of the second Trump administration.
Trump doesn’t need a mandate because he has the power if he keeps Congress and the Supreme Court in line. But that’s a big "if" when the GOP majority in its little house of horrors is so shaky and so small.
Republicans will have a wafer-thin majority in the House, with 220 seats, compared to 215 for the Democrats. If that isn’t trouble enough, the new GOP mini majority will be even smaller for the first months of the 2025 session, thanks to vacancies that must be filled in special elections.
All House Republicans had to do under Biden was to stop things. Under Trump, the caucus must pass extremist legislation which may be a bridge too far for the beleaguered Republican mini-majority — a majority in name only.
The tiny size of Trump's GOP caucus is only one of the problems that face the Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). He can’t afford to lose many Republican votes to keep his job or to pass a controversial bill. The divisive cleavages within the caucus only add to his problems.
The deep chasm among House Republicans is as wide and deep as the Pacific Ocean.
Stranded in this “Survivor” reboot on one shore are the GOP members from marginal purple districts scared to death of the impacts that cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Obamacare will have on their prospects for re-election in 2026.
Marooned on the other beach, stand the freedom caucus members from hot red districts who want to lay waste to the social and political safety net. Keeping both groups united will give the Speaker many sleepless nights and lots of anxiety.
The divisions within the House GOP were evident during consideration of the continuing resolution intended to provide the funding for keeping the federal government open. No sooner had Johnson tilted toward the moderates in his caucus, adding financial relief for farmers and hurricane victims without any budget cuts to offset the new spending, than the die-hards threw him under the bus.
Powerful House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.), whose committee handles tax legislation, complained about the lack of consultation from the Speaker. Then the billionaire co-chairs of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, complained about the Speaker’s failure to leverage Democratic concerns about a government shutdown into sharp cuts in spending.
The final blow came when Trump himself criticized the agreement. It could not happen to a nicer group of guys, and they are guys, since for the first time in a long time, no women will be committee chairs.
The failure of Johnson's budget proposal presents a clear and present danger to his re-election as Speaker in January. Rep. Tom Massie (R-Ky.) has already declared that he won’t vote for Johnson’s reelection, and his caucus colleague, Marjorie Taylor Greene has already endorsed Musk to replace him. This means big trouble for Johnson, since he has no margin for error in his quest for a second term.
House Republicans are under intense pressure to make hay while the sun still shines and before the midterm election blues set in. Americans are already in a foul mood about the economy. High inflationary tariffs and the president elect’s admission that it will be hard for him to bring grocery prices down could exaggerate the losses the congressional losses that a president usually suffers in the midterm elections.
And then there are the Democrats. The House minority party, usually unimportant to legislative outcomes, may be essential votes this Congress to pass key legislation.
The tantalizing question is whether the Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will bail Johnson out when he gets in trouble. Jeffries is likely to let the GOP stew in its own juices and play hardball the next time Johnson comes to him on bended knee. There is no need for Democrats to stop a circular Republican firing squad.
“The times they are a changing” and my party took a step in the right direction recently when it ushered in a whole new generation of ranking members on key House Committees. The new younger ranking members include Reps. Jeremy Raskin (D-Md.) at Judiciary, Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) at Natural Resources and Angie Craig (D-Minn.) to helm Agriculture.
But Democrats punted on generational change when they failed to make Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) ranking member on the House Oversight Committee. Corruption will run rampant in the second Trump term, and Ocasio-Cortez could have used her visibility to make a national case against Trump 2.0 graft and grift. Voters demonstrated last month that they are terribly angry at the political establishment, and she has a crystal-clear anti-establishment persona.
Strong Democratic resolve and the shaky House GOP majority-in-name-only may tempt Trump to govern by executive fiat with the help of a compliant Supreme Court. He doesn’t do well resisting temptation, and his hunger for supreme power raises serious questions about an imperial presidency, the future of democracy and the rise of fascism in America.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research, which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the podcast Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
