The Irish are peaking at the right time, and that could make them a College Football Playoff sleeper.
We all know that team come playoff time. The one that comes in hot and on a big winning streak, playing with an incredible amount of confidence and it leads to a deep playoff run or a championship. In the NFL, the 2012 Baltimore Ravens rode a hot Joe Flacco and a great defense to a Super Bowl title. With the 12-team College Football Playoff upon us, there’s one team that’s peaking at the right time and could ride it to a deep playoff run: the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Despite an early season loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish are in the playoff after obliterating the rest of their opponents as the 7 seed, but they might be the most dangerous team in the playoff. The Irish come in hot, and are the sleeper candidate to win it all.
Notre Dame knows exactly who they are as a team, and they’re led by physicality in the trenches. They’ve grown a lot along the offensive line this season and have found an identity in running the football extremely well. Their 0.20 EPA per carry is in the 90th percentile this season and their 10.5% Explosive Run Rate is among the best in the nation. RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, along with QB Riley Leonard have over 500 yards rushing this season and have a Success Rate of at least 40% or above. They can move the ball on the ground, but also hit the homeruns when needed. They want to punish opponents on the ground, and since the loss to NIU, they’ve been on a tear, averaging well over 200 rushing yards per game. I like how they run their offense, mixing in the QB run game with so many runs that are directly at you like duo, it makes it much more difficult to defend.
Defensively, they’re pretty simple, but there’s a beauty in simplicity. They play a lot of man coverage, the fourth-most in the entire nation. However, it all starts up front for them as well. They rotate a lot of guys in, and have six guys with at least ten total pressures. I really like defensive tackle Rylie Mills, but freshman Bryce Young has come on fairly strong this season. Their front seven is loaded with talent, and it shows when it comes to the passing game. They’re first in EPA per pass allowed and Success Rate. When they get up on opponents they just suffocate them with their man coverage.
Notre Dame got the luck of the Irish with their draw for the playoff. As the 7 seed, they get a home game in South Bend against an Indiana team that is very good, but also very beatable. The Irish might have the advantage in the trenches in that game, and if the Hoosier loss to Ohio State showed us anything, it’s that the answers against the blitz for Indiana just aren’t really there, especially if QB Kurtis Rourke isn’t healthy. But speaking of unhealthy QBs, the winner of the 7-10 game gets Georgia in the second round. The Bulldogs are still formidable, but might not have QB Carson Beck due to a UCL injury in the SEC Championship game. The Georgia skill position talent might not be good enough this year to prop up a backup QB, and without a superstar pass catcher or running back, they’ll have to get creative.
Notre Dame has the talent up front to make the Georgia game a contest, and if it comes down to trusting QB Gunner Stockton or Riley Leonard, I think I’ll side with Leonard. The board has shaken out in Notre Dame’s favor, and that favorable draw makes them a legit contender.
Let’s get back to Leonard for a second. Since the NIU loss, the Fighting Irish’s signal caller has looked healthier and more confident than ever. After nursing a shoulder injury, Leonard is back to being the dual threat that he was supposed to be transferring from Duke. Since the loss to Northern Illinois, he’s thrown 16 touchdowns and is sixth in total QBR. While he doesn’t throw the ball very far downfield, with how efficient and explosive the Notre Dame run game is, all they need Leonard to do is hit the marks in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Him being healthy also adds on in the run game, where he gives the defense another person to account for. If he’s healthy, Leonard is a major problem in the air and on the ground.
We’ve seen how entering the playoff with a lot of confidence can lead to big time runs, and Leonard enters on a high.
