AUSTIN (KXAN) -- We're working our way through the first month of meteorological winter (December), and we're getting our first look at January.
A "weak and short duration" La Niña is expected to develop, and the weather patterns should largely follow what is typical for La Niña, which is a storm track to the north and a warmer and drier pattern for the south.
The latest forecast release for January from the Climate Prediction Center follows that guidance.
Odds are high in a warmer-than-normal January.
Odds are leaning toward a drier-than-normal January.
Of course, precipitation in the winter months doesn't always mean rain for Central Texas, but most of the time it is.
January is typically our coldest month, with average highs in the low 60s and average lows in the low 40s. That brings an average temperature in the low 50s when factoring in nights and days.
Normally January is one of our drier months of the year but not our driest.
The coldest it’s ever been in January was on Jan. 31, 1949, when low temperatures in Austin dropped to -2º. We’ve had cold highs in the 20s in January as well, several of which make for record-breaking low maximum temperatures during the month.
Austin (Camp Mabry) has yet to experience the first freeze since last winter. Typically, by the beginning of January, we'd have had 4 freezes in Austin with another 5 freezes expected in an average January. Typically, January experiences the most of our freezes compared to any other month.
Thursday also brought the release of the latest Drought Monitor report. There was a marginal improvement in parts of Fayette County which went from Severe Drought (D2) last week to Moderate Drought (D1) this week. Still, most of Central Texas remains in Moderate-Severe Drought with much of the Austin Metro in an Extreme Drought (D3).
We're much worse than we were four months ago when very little of Central Texas was considered to be in drought or even dry.
The drier-than-normal expectation for January should do little to improve the drought and we should expect additional worsening.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we continue to track the changes, including any wintry precipitation.
