Selection Sunday may be more unpredictable than ever given the lack of inter-conference parity
Duke’s victory over George Mason brought an unofficial end to its non-conference slate, with one atypical February matchup against Illinois remaining.
Largely, the Blue Devils did what they needed to do to earn the top-seed in March Madness that has eluded Jon Scheyer in his first two seasons: Duke earned an impressive road Q1 victory against Arizona (one that looks less impressive now than it did at the time, but should remain strong according to NET metrics), defeated an Auburn team that may be the best in the country, and convincingly defeated all programs in their path that weren’t blue bloods. Even the Blue Devils’ two losses were closely contested against Kentucky and Kansas teams currently in the NET Top 20.
If Duke supplements those performances with a victory over a strong Illinois team in a non-conference epilogue, they’ll have rights to claim one of the best non-conference resumes in the country.
And yet, the Blue Devils may have less margin for error in the eyes of the selection committee than they have at any point in the recent past.
The reason is simple: conference realignment has created a drastic imbalance in strength-of-schedule, even amongst teams in the traditional “power” conferences. As it stands, the Blue Devils will get only five opportunities at an all-important Q1 win as part of their ACC slate: one home contest against Pitt, and then road contests against Clemson, North Carolina, SMU, and Louisville (a victory already in hand). Perhaps more alarmingly, there are only three more Q2 opportunities on the schedule, with none of the three looking particularly likely to move up to Q1 status.
Meanwhile, the SEC has rightfully earned the “best conference in America” moniker based off of a stellar non-conference slate, and could lay claim to multiple No. 1 seeds in March. Those teams will have orders of magnitude more opportunities to impress the selection committee than Duke. Auburn, for instance, has 14 projected Q1 opportunities as part of their SEC schedule, and no SEC game currently projects lower than Q2. Tennessee, the current AP No. 1 team, also has 14 projected Q1 SEC contests. Meanwhile, Iowa State, the current class of the Big 12, has 10 projected Q1 contests as part of their conference schedule. Even in a weaker than usual Big 10, current NET No. 9 Maryland has 10 projected conference Q1 games.
The numbers are clear: there’s a divide between those three leagues and the ACC, despite the latter’s historical strength.
This by no means relegates Duke to competing for a middling 3 or 4 seed in March; after all, Gonzaga has earned numerous top seeds despite playing in a league that, even at its best, would struggle to compare top-to-bottom with this year’s ACC. But this means the Blue Devils have minimal margin for error. It’s highly unlikely that, come Selection Sunday, Duke will be able to point to its number of top-tier, Q1 wins to impress the selection committee, particularly when compared to SEC and Big 12 competition.
Instead, the Blue Devils will have to continue to be impressive in the efficiency metrics that drive the NET rankings while differentiating itself against their peers in the loss column. That means this year’s Duke team will be fighting an uphill battle for a No. 1 seed if it drops a surprising home contest, like the 2019 Blue Devils did to unranked Syracuse. Their claim to a top seed certainly won’t be able to survive back-to-back losses to unranked foes like the 2015 team’s did.
Then again, the committee is known for nothing if not its inconsistency. As recently as last season, North Carolina earned a No. 1 seed despite suffering three losses (four if you include the ACC Tournament) in a down year for the ACC, buoyed in part by multiple impressive non-conference victories. The Blue Devils have two of those in hand, with a possibility for a third in February. With this precedent, they arguably still “control their own destiny” for that all-important No. 1 seed.
Even that recent comparison may be corrupted by the conference realignment that took place between these seasons. But the committee will be forced to make imperfect comparisons when looking at the top teams in the power conferences this year given the shocking lack of parity across the country. No one yet knows how that panel will compare apples and oranges, but how they do will inevitably determine how much margin for error this young Duke team has during the inevitable hiccups that arise during ACC play.
