After season to forget, is there hope for Dr. Sticks in 2025?
Triston McKenzie has gone from a potential face of the franchise to a player living on the roster bubble in Cleveland. The year ahead will be an absolutely pivotal one for the player affectionately known as Dr. Sticks.
From 2020-2022, McKenzie had a 3.68 ERA and a 4.01 FIP and a 9.61/2.90 K/BB/9. From 2023-2024 (including only 16 innings in 2023), McKenzie has a 5.11 ERA and a 6.12 FIP and a 8.84/6.09 K/BB/9. Obviously, an elbow injury threw a wrench in what was shaping up to be another Cleveland pitching development success story after McKenzie’s age-24 season in 2022. Since then, the main problem is pretty obvious - McKenzie has lost his command. He does not have stuff that is dominant enough to compensate for walking six batters for nine, a number that more than doubles his walk-rate from his first three seasons. Just watching games, you can see him missing his spots with his fastball and getting hammered over and over. For example, here he is meant to throw a fastball down and he serves up a meatball to Vladdy Jr:
McKenzie chose to avoid Tommy John surgery after his elbow injury in 2023, but it’s been repeatedly said that the process of healing from the ligament tear is still like learning to pitch with a new elbow. If an additional year of pitching provides him the confidence and comfort to locate his pitches more consistently, at a rate more in line with his first three MLB seasons, that will go a long way toward helping McKenzie be a viable big league performer again. But, there is no way to know for sure if this is a reasonable possibility.
In looking under the hood, McKenzie has seen a drop in velocity in all his pitches - around 1.5 mph on his fastball, around 1 mph on his slider, and around 2 mph on his curveball from 2020-2022 to 2023-2024. His fastball lost vertical (about 1 inch) and horizontal (about 2 inches) break, and his curveball lost about 1.5 inches of vertical movement. His fastball has also lost about 3% spin rate. His extension has remained consistent and his release point is also essentially the same. His inability to locate his fastball consistently combined with his loss of heater velocity pushed him to rely more on his breaking pitches, but that wasn’t enough to stave off a barrage of hitters unleashing on his four-seamer, a pitch that declined from 20 runs above average in 2022 to about 15 runs BELOW average last year.
So, there you have it. McKenzie’s fastball was a pitch that thrived on the margins. It moved just enough, was just fast enough, spun just enough at an extension level just enough that at his elite extension it kept hitters off balance and enabled him to use a good slider and curveball to be a good major league starter. The elbow injury produced just enough decline to make his fastball one of the most hittable pitches in the majors. Will that change with another offseason of recovery and rehab? No one knows. And, all we have is hope.
It’s probably not especially newsworthy to hear that Stephen Vogt, who described himself as Pollyanna once, is feeling positive about McKenzie this offseason. But, I think it’s at least a positive thing that he’s saying McKenzie feels healthy in body and arm. If that’s truly the case, then I think it’s fair to hold on to some optimism that he can find his old form in 2025.
McKenzie had an awful outing to end 2024. But, prior to that, in his previous five outings, he had a 7.20/3.60 K/BB/9 and a 3.60 ERA in Columbus. Most excitingly, his fastball velocity went back up to around a 93 mph average in Columbus (admittedly, this may have had something to do with making shorter outings). If McKenzie can get that BB/9 closer to 3, it will be a sign his command has returned enough to locate his fastball with enough efficiency to make his slider and curveball (still good pitches) work in getting him whiffs and weak contact. If he is moved to the pen, he may be able to get more velocity on his fastball, which should help, as well as not having to maintain command for longer than an inning or two. I want McKenzie to be a good starter again, but if he can be a good reliever, that’s something. We will likely get a good look in Spring Training in terms of whether or not his command and his stuff are rebounding. Here’s hoping he can earn himself another shot in the rotation, or in the bullpen as a long-man.
Triston McKenzie is one of my favorite players. I’m not sure I’ve ever enjoyed seeing a pitcher throw a baseball in a Cleveland uniform more than I’ve enjoyed it when Doctor Sticks was receiving patients and prescribing whiffs. If I could make one baseball Christmas wish this year, I think my brain would wish for Daniel Espino to be healthy because the upside there is too tremendous to miss. But, my heart and my mind would wish for 2022 Triston McKenzie to return. He deserves that, and Guardians fans have been good this year and would delight in his comeback story.
