The collapse of Speaker Mike Johnson’s spending plan illustrates a painful lesson that other politicians have already learned: Absolute loyalty to Donald Trump is a one-way street.
As the U.S. teeters on the edge of a government shutdown, bitterly divided Republicans are struggling to find a way forward and Johnson’s hold on his job is in Trump’s mercurial hands.
Multiple House conservatives, as well as Trump advisers and other people close to the incoming president, indicate Johnson’s hold on the speakership is far from stable just as Republicans are about to take control of the House, Senate and White House. One Trump adviser, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Johnson could salvage the relationship by “doing what Trump wants.” But another said that Trump wasn’t “protecting him” and not to be fooled by the president-elect’s publicly kind remarks.
“If somebody challenges Johnson, you're not going to get any pushback,” said a Trump adviser, granted anonymity to speak frankly. “Which means he won’t save him if he’s in trouble."
Johnson’s hold on power was already tenuous — with a slim House majority about to get even slimmer — but this week’s battle over a bipartisan spending plan may have done irreparable damage to the congressman from Louisiana.
Johnson appeared to be back on Trump’s good side after totally deferring to the incoming president’s demands on government spending — but his position is far from stable. After months of Johnson closely hugging the president-elect, Trump didn’t hesitate to throw him under the proverbial bus Wednesday, tanking his funding plan and even making thinly veiled threats about his ability to remain speaker next year, saying If Mike Johnson gets “tough” and cuts out the Democratic wins they secured, then he would be safe.
Republicans read into the unspoken counterpoint: Johnson was doomed if he didn’t.
Johnson aggressively worked to win the president back over, huddling late into Wednesday night with Vice President-elect JD Vance to try to bridge the party’s public divide on how to fund the government. As Johnson met with various factions of his own conference throughout the day, he and his team also circulated ideas with Trump and his allies to avoid another tanked spending bill.
But Johnson and his team were actively talking to the incoming president and his team about the initial stopgap plan, raising questions about where the communication broke down. Some wondered if Elon Musk’s public attacks altered that trajectory.
It’s a harsh reminder of how quickly Trump’s loyalties can change and his willingness to turn on allies who had long cultivated his favor. Johnson knows that keeping Trump on his side is crucial for his political survival as speaker, and that’s going to repeatedly color how Johnson can operate not only in the next couple of weeks, but also next year — if he can hold onto the gavel.
Trump’s allies were actively working to get support for the new stopgap funding bill; the White House legislative affairs team appeared to be involved in checking where members stood ahead of the vote on the revised spending plan, according to a member familiar with the efforts. And some of Trump’s allies are explicitly warning Republicans not to oppose votes that the incoming president backs.
Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) said Thursday, after a conversation with Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), that he was offering “caution” to Republicans who opposed the new stopgap, telling them Trump “is the quarterback” and “he called a play.” Spartz voted against the bill.
But Trump has now cooled on explicitly defending Johnson for speaker. As recently as this month, Trump was privately urging GOP members, according to one House Republican who spoke to him, to not do anything to distract from the start of his administration. This Republican took that to mean he didn’t want a protracted speakership fight. But after the spending fiasco, some members wonder if Johnson still has the votes.
One House Freedom Caucus member indicated Trump’s backing is a determinative factor: “I keep hearing more and more rumors of people that are jailbreak but at the end of the day, if Trump is backing him on Jan. 3, you really want to stand up against Trump?”
The House Freedom Caucus also huddled Thursday ahead of the vote on the Trump-backed spending bill, where a group of their members vented frustrations and also acknowledged that Trump is watching what happens, according to a person with knowledge of their private meeting. Many conservatives opposed the funding plan, and one who came out against it, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), got a primary threat from Trump earlier in the day.
Johnson has virtually no room for error on a speakership vote. Republicans are expected to have a 219-215 majority on Jan. 3 given Matt Gaetz’s resignation, meaning Johnson will only be able to lose one of his GOP members and still get the 218 votes needed to be speaker.
Johnson already has one strike against him: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has publicly stated he doesn’t plan to back Johnson on the House floor and is hinting that other Republicans share his concerns. Another, Spartz, said earlier this week that she’ll remain a Republican but not attend conference meetings, throwing into question if she would back Johnson.
No one has publicly joined Massie so far, but Johnson is facing skepticism, and in some cases vocal criticism, from several others, who say they are undecided about how they will handle his speaker race election. Some members are publicly floating potential alternatives to Johnson, including Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), as conservatives raged against the initial funding plan.
“I think he’s certainly got a lot of whipping to do,” said one House conservative, granted anonymity to speak frankly.
Still, some conservatives dismissed threats to Johnson’s speakership as mere saber rattling.
“Everyone likes to question, and then no one likes to actually go out and publicly own it. So until someone steps up, I don't even think that that's a topic of discussion as of right now. The president supports him. I support him,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), a Freedom Caucus member, about Johnson’s chances of remaining speaker.
Asked if Trump backing the spending plan helps Johnson on Jan. 3, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said “time will tell.”
“I like Mike,” added Norman, who is opposing the latest spending plan. “[But] no bill is better than a bad bill.”
Meridith McGraw, Meredith Lee Hill, Holly Otterbein contributed to this report.
