NFL straight-up picks, Week 16: The Ravens get revenge on the Steelers and Jaguars win a pillow fight

The Baltimore Ravens will deny the Pittsburgh Steelers bid to clinch the AFC North in Week 16. At least that’s what our six-person panel believes will go down Saturday afternoon in Maryland.

The NFL’s annual creep into Saturdays begins this weekend with a pair of vital AFC matchups. The Houston Texans will try to prove they can hang with the big boys despite a disappointing 2024 when they face a hobbled Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s just an appetizer before a hard-hitting feast of AFC North hatred between two teams that have taken the division crown six of the last eight years.

That’s not the only game this week that will have major playoff implications. Let’s look at the schedule and try to pick some winners.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, who on a 41-4 heater, and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 15 picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) over the Cleveland Browns

Why I like this pick:

Nick Chubb is injured and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the Browns’ quarterback. Joe Burrow continues to play at an MVP level, even if there’s no chance he’ll win the award. Cincinnati has scored at least 27 points in each of its last six games (34 points per game in that stretch).

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Bengals have made it a point not to make anything easy in 2024. Their soft passing defense is the perfect padded spot for a flawed young quarterback to make a crash landing. Cincinnati’s offensive line is allowing pressure at a rate 33 percent higher than it gets blitzed, which means Myles Garrett might feast. Cleveland has generally shown up for AFC North games this season

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 12-3 (.800)

Hardest favorite to back: Miami Dolphins (-1.5) over the San Francisco 49ers

Why I like this pick:

The Dolphins have an eight percent chance to make the playoffs compared to the 49ers <1 percent (they’re a Rams win — any Rams win — away from elimination). That makes this a more vital game for Tua Tagovailoa than Brock Purdy, Purdy’s looming contract extension aside. Tagovailoa is 4-0 against teams with losing records this season and has generally taken care of business at home, where he’s got a 104.3 passer rating.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Niners aren’t built like the other losing teams Tagovailoa has beaten in 2024. Purdy won’t deal with the same weather related issues that limited him in Week 15. The Dolphins only have an average passing defense, which creates a launching pad for Kyle Shanahan to build momentum to finish his season.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 9-6 (.600)

Upset pick of the week: Denver Broncos (+3) over the Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are nearing a crisis point at 8-6. Their playoff spot is mostly secure, but Los Angeles needs a win to prevent a three-game losing streak. Now it gets to throw the league’s top scoring defense at a first-year quarterback. Granted, that unit just got thoroughly torched by Baker Mayfield, but Bo Nix isn’t Baker Mayfield (derogatory).

Herbert, despite his flaws, remains very good. The Broncos, despite their first winning record in seven years, remain prone to days where their offense simply doesn’t show up (five games with 16 points or fewer this season). That includes a 23-16 home loss to the Chargers in October.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 5-10 (.333)