Let’s break down the Zach LaVine to the Nuggets trade rumor, plus grade the likelihood the deal actually happens
Zach LaVine has lingered on the trade block for more than a year as the Chicago Bulls have been fully submerged in mediocrity. The market has been nearly silent for LaVine with teams worried about taking on large salaries under the new CBA, but a potential suitor finally emerged on Tuesday night.
The Denver Nuggets reportedly have “significant” interest in LaVine as the NBA trade deadline approaches on Feb. 6, according to The Athletic. Reporters Sam Amick and Tony Jones say the Nuggets are casting a wide net for help that potentially includes Cameron Johnson, Jordan Clarkson, De’Andre Hunter, and Jordan Poole. LaVine is the best player in that group, and he also might be the most attainable.
The market for LaVine has been cooled by his contract and injury concerns. The guard, who turns 30 in March, has two years and about $95 million remaining on his contract after this season. He was shut down last year for foot surgery and also tore his ACL in 2017, but for the most part he’s been pretty durable since arriving to the Bulls in the Jimmy Butler trade later that year.
At his best, LaVine is one of the better pure scorers alive, a hyper-efficient volume bucket-getter who combines deadly three-point shooting with frequent rim pressure. The Nuggets offer a fascinating fit: LaVine has never played off a superstar like Nikola Jokic, but there would be questions next to Jamal Murray at the other end of the floor.
Denver could reportedly include Michael Porter Jr. and Zeke Nnaji in a potential trade for LaVine. LaVine and Torrey Craig to Denver for Porter Jr. and Nnaji works out salary wise as a legal trade.
There’s so much to dive into with this rumor. Here are 11 thoughts on if a LaVine-for-Porter Jr. makes sense for each side, and how likely the deal is to happen.
There are only four players who are averaging at least 21 points and four assists per game with 63 percent true shooting: LaVine, Jokic, Stephen Curry, and Domantas Sabonis. LaVine’s ability to score a lot of points from the most valuable parts of the floor in a highly efficient manner, combined with some playmaking skill, is extremely rare.
If you could name the ideal superstar for LaVine to play off of, it’s Jokic. Calling Jokic the “best passing big man ever” is underselling him: he’s one of the greatest passes ever at any position, and also one of the best offensive players the game has ever seen. LaVine is at his best when he’s an off-ball scorer who can rip spot-up threes and attack closeouts. In Chicago, he’s had to create everything for himself save for his brief run with Lonzo Ball in 2021, when the Bulls looked awesome. Pairing him with Jokic could unlock some great offensive results if LaVine continues to buy-in to an off-ball role.
The Nuggets rank dead last in three-point rate — percentage of field goal attempts from three-point range. They rank No. 28 in the NBA in drives per game at 37.1. Denver still leads in the NBA in rim shot frequently mostly because of Jokic, but it sure would be nice to have another player who can put pressure on the opposing defense off the dribble. LaVine can.
LaVine is attempting 10.2 three-pointers per 100 possessions this year, while Porter is at 8.0. The career numbers for 3PA per 100 are a little higher for Porter, but LaVine has been both the more accurate (42.8 percent) and more willing shooter this year. LaVine’s drives have been down a bit this year as Chicago has shifted to a new offense, but he has a history of being a plus rim attacker and rim finisher which would give Denver a dimension it doesn’t currently have.
Why would Chicago do a trade that nets them a worse player, a bad contract in Nnaji (more on him later), and no draft compensation? Well, the Bulls’ 2025 first-round draft pick goes to San Antonio unless it ends up in the top-10. Right now, the Bulls are 10th in the lottery standings, flirting with the disaster of giving away their draft pick in a rebuilding year. The Bulls need to get worse, and trading LaVine in the middle of an All-Star caliber season would do the trick.
What the Bulls really need back in a LaVine trade is future draft equity. The Nuggets don’t have any to offer, and it feels like no team is going to part with a first-rounder for LaVine at this point as clubs fret about his salary. Doing this trade breaks LaVine into two smaller contracts, and it’s possible they would have an easier time dealing Porter Jr. for a first rounder.
MPJ has two years and $79 million left on his deal after this year. He’s only 26 years old until June, and his combination of size and shooting could be coveted on the trade market. Would a contender give up a first rounder for Porter? If so, that makes this deal more palatable for the Bulls. Color me skeptical that Chicago would actually flip him, because: a) lead executive Arturas Karnisovas is paralyzed by indecision on the trade market, b) Karnisovas was part of the Denver front office that drafted Porter in 2018.
Karnisovas would sell Porter as a new piece to young core, just like he did with Josh Giddey.
LaVine is supposedly untradable in part because of durability concerns. Well, Porter Jr. should be considered an even bigger injury risk.
Porter Jr. has been hampered by back injuries since enrolling at Missouri as a top recruit. He barely played in his lone college season, and fell to No. 14 in the draft because teams were worried about the long-term durability of his back. After missing his entire rookie season, Porter was fine until 2021 when he had to have another back surgery and only played nine games. He’s been mostly durable since, playing 95 of 96 possible games dating back to last season.
The Bulls have an awful history when it comes to injury prevention and management. Chicago’s players seem to drop like flies every year with a random injury, and that makes trading for Porter Jr. a scary proposition. His back feels like a ticking time-bomb waiting to happen, and the Bulls just can’t be trusted to keep him healthy.
Contenders usually don’t want to get smaller ahead of a playoff run. That’s the top concern for the Nuggets in a theoretical MPJ for LaVine swap: LaVine is five inches shorter, and would form a weak defensive backcourt with Murray. The one player who might be able to salvage this is Peyton Watson, the Nuggets’ young wing who is a super long, super athletic defender but remains rough offensively.
With Watson and Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets might just have enough defense to make the Jokic-Murray-LaVine trio work. Watson’s lack of offense becomes a little less limiting with LaVine providing more shot creation than Porter could, but teams would still sag off him in the playoffs and dare him to shoot.
Watson is already a really good defender at 22 years old. If he keeps developing, he could be a skeleton key to making the Nuggets new-look lineup work.
The Nuggets’ biggest issue right now feels like Jamal Murray’s dip in production. Murray just hasn’t been the same player since suffering an injury in the second half of last year. His poor 2024 playoff run gave way to a lackluster performance for Canada in the 2024 Olympics, and he hasn’t been much better this year. Murray’s 18.4 points per game and 53.1 percent true shooting are both his lowest marks since early in his career.
Murray just doesn’t have the same athletic pop as a driver and finisher anymore despite only being 27 years old. While Murray has been incredible in clutch situations in the playoffs so many times before, he’s also never been an All-Star like LaVine has, twice. If Murray can’t be the go-to offensive sidekick Jokic needs anymore, LaVine is a hell of a replacement.
Don’t yell at me, but I’d take LaVine over Murray for the next 2.5 seasons without thinking twice about it.
Nnaji is one of the worst players in the league by the advanced numbers, and still has three years left on his deal after this season for about $23 million. Nnaji is the type of deal a team should need draft compensation just to take on. He’s unplayable, and would cut into Chicago’s cap space moving forward. Sadly for the Bulls, they just don’t have much leverage with such a diminished market for LaVine, and might have to just take it.
Would Chicago include Ayo Dosunmu in this deal instead of Craig? There’s a way to make the salaries work, but it would be unwise for the Bulls to do that without draft compensation that the Nuggets don’t have coming back. This really comes down to who is more desperate: the Bulls to try to keep their draft pick, or the Nuggets to bolster the roster for a playoff run?
Karnisovas has mismanaged the LaVine situation the entire way. He’s made terrible trades with the Thunder and Magic since taking over with the Bulls. Losing the draft pick this year would be perhaps his biggest blunder yet. If he’s going to trade Dosunmu on a team-friendly deal, though, he should find a first-round pick out there from some other team.
It’s hard to quantify defense in statistical metrics, but LaVine has been slightly better than Porter on defense this year despite being smaller.
LaVine is a -1.1 on defensive EPM this year, ranking in the 16th percentile. Porter is a -1.6, ranking in the 6th percentile. Porter Jr. is a much better rebounder, and has a slight edge in defensive BPM. The Nuggets would be smaller with LaVine in for Porter, but they wouldn’t necessarily be worse defensively.
Karnisovas and top Nuggets executive Calvin Booth have a history together dating back to their days in Denver’s front office. Is it possible this is leaking as a favor from Booth to Karnisovas to help him drum up a trade market for LaVine after months of silence? Crazier things have happened.
6 out of 10
This trade makes some sense for both sides, but ultimately I think Denver walks away if it can’t get another contributor in the deal. I could see it revisited again over the summer after Denver gets eliminated in the playoffs.
