Numerous polls conducted prior to and following the 2024 presidential election show that one of voters’ top concerns was the state of the economy. This was especially the case among voters who cast their ballot for Donald Trump.
This phenomenon has puzzled countless supporters of the Biden-Harris administration, who have insisted for years that the United States has enjoyed a booming economy under the leadership of Joe Biden.
For proof, the White House and an endless list of left-wing political pundits have often pointed to employment and unemployment figures as proof for the Biden-Harris administration’s economic success.
But voters intuitively knew better. No number of headlines in The New York Times or excited rants on cable news shows could convince them that America’s economy is running strong.
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Now, Trump voters have the numbers to back up their suspicions.
A new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows that the Biden-Harris administration’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) overestimated employment in 25 states across the country in the second quarter of 2024. By contrast, the report found that initial employment numbers from BLS were too high in only two states. (The second quarter of 2024 is the most recent period for which the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has updated data.)
According to the Philadelphia Fed, its updated, expanded data reveals second quarter state payroll employment declined by 0.1 percent, suggesting a net jobs loss during that period compared to one year prior.
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The preliminary employment data provided by the White House had indicated earlier this year that there had been an increase in states’ employment numbers during the same period. According to the Biden-Harris administration’s original numbers, the sum of states’ employment figures showed a national increase in employment of 1.8%. The national survey data showed an increase of 1.1%.
The Philadelphia Fed’s researchers believe both these figures were wildly wrong.
The Philadelphia Fed believes the Biden-Harris administration’s previously reported employment figures were off by 1.2 to 1.9 percentage points, depending on the survey data used. That might seem small, but when applied to employment figures in all 50 states, we are talking about overestimating employment nationally by as many as 3 million jobs.
How could the Biden-Harris administration have been off by so much?
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Although it is incredibly difficult to prove, it’s reasonable to suspect that the White House might have rigged the employment surveys to make it appear as though the economy was in better shape.
The biggest reason to believe that the White House could have deliberately deceived Americans is that previous employment figures are rarely revised to the extent that the second quarter 2024 numbers will end up being adjusted, according to the Philadelphia Fed’s other reports.
For example, the Philadelphia Fed estimates preliminary state employment data for the second quarter of 2023 differed by just 0.1 percentage points from more accurate data reported later in the year.
In fact, I couldn’t find a similarly flawed example in all of the Philadelphia Fed’s other 2024 or 2023 reports about state employment data. The state employment figures reported by the Biden-Harris administration in the second quarter of 2024 appear to be off by more than every other quarter in both years.
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I did, however, discover similar employment overestimations in some 2022 reports. I am sure it’s only a coincidence that 2022 was yet another important election year.
It is also worth noting that in the 2022 reports showing substantial differences between preliminary state employment numbers and more accurate later reporting, the more accurate numbers revealed much lower employment than previously thought. As I noted previously, this was also the case in the most recent report released by the Philadelphia Fed for the second quarter of 2024.
In other words, over the past three years, when the Biden-Harris administration has dramatically revised its state employment figures, it has most often revised them downward.
Could it be a coincidence that these errors have typically benefited the White House? Or is it possible that the Biden-Harris administration has been deliberately fooling people into thinking employment is much higher than it actually is?
Only time and a congressional investigation will tell.
