Talking about the bond market — something we’ve done a lot of this week — is largely just a way to talk about interest rates: the cost of borrowing money. The Federal Reserve just cut that cost by a quarter of a percentage point.
But what’s become clear in recent weeks is that rates might not fall much further the coming year, given the strength of the economic outlook and the possibility of Trump administration tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations, policies that some analysts call inflationary.
If rates don’t fall — or if they even end up rising — businesses throughout this economy will have to deal with higher-for-longer borrowing costs. So we called up a few to see how they’re preparing.
One sector that’s really sensitive to interest rates is construction.
John Kirk, founder of the Lightpath Co., an apartment construction firm in New Braunfels, Texas, said even though rates have started to come down, they’re still too high for a lot of building projects to make economic sense.
“So that’s why you’re not going to see a huge, robust pipeline of supply hitting the market again,” he said.
Kirk said he and other developers still have to make money. But if rates stay elevated through the next 12 months, they’re gonna be pretty choosy.
They’ll think hard “when it comes to site selection, and what deals do they believe in, and how do you raise capital and really get it across the finish line to start construction,” he said.
Even though interest rates have been slowly coming down, plenty of commercial borrowers are about to get hit with much higher rates.
Dominik Mjartan, CEO of American Pride Bank in Macon, Georgia, said that’s because they’re sitting on loans they took out a few years ago, back when rates were really low.
“And if those loans were originated with three- to five-year terms, then those loans are maturing right about now,” he said.
Mjartan said that means those borrowers are likely going to scale back their plans. Maybe cancel a new project or new hiring.
“So there’s a chilling effect. Even though the rates have come down recently, they’re still much higher than they were three, four, five years ago,” he said.
High rates also have an indirect impact on industries that rely on consumer spending.
Spiro Pappadopoulos, CEO of Schlow Restaurant Group, said when car loans, credit cards and mortgages are expensive, “it affects the restaurant business earlier than it would something that is less able to be cut out.”
Like, for instance, gasoline or groceries.
Pappadopoulos said he made plenty of changes to his restaurants while interest rates and inflation were even higher. He modified his menus to keep quality high but prices reasonable, he said. Think chicken instead of veal. Or featuring family-style meals instead of individual entrees.
“Really just trying to offer more value during that period of time. And amping up the experience and the hospitality,” he said.
Pappadopoulos said even if interest rates fall more slowly next year, his restaurants are still in a position to give consumers what they want.
