The throw should have been a touchdown.
On the heels of a 29-yard completion that got the Bears to the -Vikings’ 28-yard line down by 13 halfway through the third quarter Monday, receiver Keenan Allen was sent in motion to the left flank. From there, he ran a double-move route, stopping and starting to zip past Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy up the left sideline. He was two yards behind Murphy when Caleb Williams lofted a ball into the end zone.
The ball landed with a thud on the turf. Williams overthrew him.
“It’s frustrating,” Williams said Wednesday after a walkthrough practice. “I hate missing passes, especially ones that I’ve been pretty consistent on for a good amount of time.”
It’s happening too often.
According to Pro Football Reference’s metric, Williams leads the NFL with 97 bad throws, which are defined as a pass that’s uncatchable with normal effort. The Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, has only 50. The Broncos’ Bo Nix, a fellow rookie, has 75. Like Williams, they’ve started every game this season.
The only two quarterbacks with a higher percentage of bad throws than Williams’ 22.2% are comically overmatched Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson and the temporarily back-from-the-dead Bryce Young of the Panthers.
Only 71.6% of Williams’ passes are considered on target, which ranks seventh-worst in the NFL. Daniels has thrown 80.2% of his balls on target, the fourth-best mark in the league.
It’s a disturbing metric that measures Williams’ development during a rookie year both he and the Bears hoped would go better. Williams’ inaccuracy would have been surprising at USC, where he threw for 46 touchdowns and just one interception in the red zone during his two seasons.
The pass to Allen was a play Williams wants back, interim coach and play-caller Thomas Brown said.
“That was a really good play-call against that from a coverage standpoint,” he said. “Rome [Odunze] did a really good job in the middle of the field holding the post safety, and then Keenan did what Keenan does, winning on the outside one-on-one.”
Williams laid out exactly why he missed the throw — he stepped up in the pocket and let his momentum carry the ball too far. He wanted to loft the ball instead of drive it, afraid Murphy would undercut it.
He hopes it’s a lesson learned. Brown said Williams’ accuracy has improved lately but can be better, and receiver DJ Moore said he has been mostly pleased with his quarterback’s precision. But Williams has only three games left to improve, and he should be limiting those rookie mistakes by now.
“That’s coming,” Williams said. “The progress has, over this football season, been growing for myself . . . [seeing] routes and combinations of routes put together and seeing all these different defenses and throwing all this footwork together.
“The progress has been on a steady trend upwards, but I would say it is pretty frustrating, missing some of these passes that I’ve missed.”
He missed an easier one to Allen earlier in the third quarter, too. The veteran receiver lined up in the left slot and ran a pivot route back toward the middle of the field. There was no defender within three yards of him when he popped open nine yards downfield. Williams threw too far to the right, though, and the ball fell incomplete.
Williams said he needs to practice fundamentals to the point that they’re second nature.
“When you’re getting live bullets, you’re not thinking so much about those small things,” he said “You’re thinking about a lot bigger things like pressures or coverages or the play and the routes.”
He’s frustrated by his accuracy, but also where the team stands in what was supposed to be a go-for-it season. Williams has lost as many games this season as he did in three seasons as a college starter.
“Internally, when tough times happen, just human nature is to do the opposite of what you’re doing,” Williams said. “The toughest part is fighting yourself, especially when there’s tough times.”
Williams believes in the power of positive affirmation.
“This is going to sound crazy, but you talk to yourself, to be honest,” he said. “You motivate yourself, you encourage yourself. With that, it makes the days better, it makes when you’re going through a tough patch, it makes those days a little bit easier, rather than pulling yourself down.”
Williams tells himself that “I am great, I will be great.”
Bears fans are waiting on it, and like Williams, probably muttering to themselves when a pass falls incomplete in the end zone.
