The 1,547-page interim spending bill to avoid a government shutdown is effectively dead. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has all but yanked the plan off the floor after President-elect Trump, Vice President-elect Vance and Elon Musk torched the package to avoid a government shutdown this weekend and fund the government through March 14.
Had House Republicans had the votes to pass the bill – without leaning too heavily on Democrats – Republicans may have been able to pass the bill late Wednesday afternoon before the intervention of Mssrs. Trump and Vance. But there was just too much grassroots pressure, sparked by Musk on X and elsewhere.
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The stopgap spending package proved unpopular due to its size, and various legislative ornaments festooned on the bill like a Christmas tree. Conservatives were expecting Johnson to handle the spending plan differently this year at the holidays. But it backfired. Badly.
It’s notable that Mr. Trump did not weigh in until the 11th hour. He also demanded a debt ceiling increase. That’s something which faced the President-elect in the first quarter of the year and threatened to derail any legislative agenda or potentially spook the markets.
Johnson’s decision to veer off course – despite touting the bill heartily on Fox this morning – underscores several things.
This is a sign of things to come once President-elect Trump is in office. And that could present problems for Johnson as he may be at the whim of decisions by the new President?
Why did Johnson pull the bill?
It was wildy unpopular with his rank and file. But it devolved further once Musk and the President-elect got infused themselves.
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In many respects, Johnson’s decision to pull the bill was all about January 3. That’s the day of the Speaker’s vote. With 434 members to start the new Congress, Johnson needs 218 votes. Otherwise, he lacks a majority and cannot become Speaker. The House must vote repeatedly – as it did in January 2023 - before electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) five days later in what was the longest Speaker’s race since the 1850s.
Johnson tried to salvage himself in the Speaker’s vote by adding emergency agriculture spending to the bill. But Johnson is now trying to salvage himself by coming up with a new bill.
The irony is that Johnson did not want to create drama before Christmas with a spending package. But drama is exactly what he got in what quickly became the worst Congressional holiday standoff since the fiscal cliff in 2012 or a government shutdown threat in 2014.
So here’s the $64,000 Question: What play does Johnson call next?
Does he do a clean CR to fund the government with nothing attached? Is it a bill that just re-ups current funding coupled with disaster aid? Do they attach a debt ceiling suspension as President-elect Trump has requested?
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And then the biggest question of all: can ANYTHING pass at all? Especially without votes from the Democrats?
Johnson has a tranche of conservatives who won’t vote for any CR at all. Many of them would also not vote for a debt ceiling increase, either.
And even if there is a new bill, do conservatives insist on waiting three days to ponder that bill? That triggers a government shutdown right there.
The deadline is 11:59:59 pm ET on Friday.
So this is going to require someone to pull a rabbit out of a hat.
President-elect Trump’s maneuver today is reminiscent of a similar move he made in December 2019, which sparked the longest government shutdown in history.
Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), then-Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) and others thought they had a deal to fund the government and avoid a Christmas-time shutdown.
The Senate voted for the bill. Senators even sat in the back of the chamber and sang Christmas carols during the vote.
Mr. Trump then balked at the last minute. House Republicans followed suit. The government shut down for more than a month.
