Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is on track to upset Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King at the box office this weekend. The third installment of the franchise based on Sega’s video game series will gross between $50 million and $60 million domestically, according to studio estimates per Deadline. Mufasa may have the last roar globally, however, with an expected worldwide gross $180 million.
Disney’s Moana 2 is finally coming down from its record-shattering wave at the top. With a weekend forecast of $12 million, the animated sequel is expected to drop about 50 percent from last week. Universal Pictures’ Wicked is on a similar trajectory, and may even fly past Moana 2 to steal third place.
Gold Derby predicts that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will win the Dec. 20 – Dec. 22 weekend with between $50 million – $75 million domestically. Mufasa is the runner-up choice of our odds-makers. Do you agree or disagree with those rankings? Make your predictions right now — it’s fun and easy! Join the box-office discussion in our forums.
NEW RELEASES
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (director: Jeff Fowler): Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails reunite against a powerful new adversary, Shadow, a mysterious villain with powers unlike anything they have faced before. With their abilities outmatched, Team Sonic must seek out an unlikely alliance. The action-comedy starring Jim Carrey and featuring the voices of Keanu Reeves and Idris Elba has a running time of one hour, 50 minutes, and is rated PG. Per the review aggregator Metacritic, the threequel’s reception has been a “generally favorable” 62 percent.
Mufasa: The Lion King (director: Barry Jenkins): Mufasa, a cub lost and alone, meets a sympathetic lion named Taka, the heir to a royal bloodline. The chance meeting sets in motion an expansive journey of a group of misfits searching for their destiny. The photorealistically animated film features the voices of Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Donald Glover, and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter. Its running time is two hours and it is rated PG. Reviewers compiled by Metacritic have had a “mixed” reaction to the film, with an overall score of 59 percent.
BOX-OFFICE PREDICTIONS
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 has a demographic advantage heading into the weekend, with a stronghold on young male and teenage boys. That audience is lacking for Mufasa, Moana 2, and Wicked, which are splitting a predominantly female audience, while Gladiator II and the bombing Kraven the Hunter are rated R and target an older demo. While Sonic 3 is on pace to match the original film, which grossed $58 million in it’s opening weekend in 2014, the threequel won’t likely match up to its predecessor, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, which earned $72 million its opening weekend in 2022.
Here are Gold Derby’s current box-office rankings for the top five:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
3. Moana 2
4. Wicked
5. Kraven the Hunter
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