Following the rebels’ lightning takeover of Syria, here’s another entirely unexpected development: the Palestinian Authority security forces are trying to reassert control in parts of the West Bank under its jurisdiction.
For the last eight days, PA security forces have battled Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters in Jenin, determined to regain control over the refugee camp that had fallen under the sway of terrorists unaffiliated with the PA.
These terrorists, aligned with Iran’s “axis of evil,” were a cornerstone of the Islamic Republic’s strategy to ignite an explosion in Judea and Samaria.
To fuel this upheaval, Iran has been smuggling sophisticated weapons and explosives into the area. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, from which Iranian-supplied arms were smuggled into Jordan and then across the Jordan River into Judea and Samaria, this has just become that much more difficult.
While an AP report on Monday said “it was not immediately clear why the Palestinian Authority decided to launch the crackdown now,” the reason seems obvious: to prove that they can take control of territory in the hope and expectation that they will ultimately regain control of Gaza.
Hamas ousted Fatah and the PA in a bloody coup in 2007. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to letting the PA govern Gaza on the proverbial “day after,” noting that it has proven unable to control the territories already under its control.
Nevertheless, the PA’s sudden effort to prove its mettle has now added to Hamas’s growing list of problems. The pressure on Hamas has become so severe that the group issued a fiery statement Tuesday morning, denouncing the PA’s actions as a “full-scale crime” and calling for “public mobilization to break the siege and support the resistance fighters.”
It is this growing list of problems that has forced Hamas to finally show some flexibility in its demands, bringing it closer than ever – according to numerous reports – to reaching a hostage deal with Israel.
The PA’s clampdown on “resistance fighters” in Jenin and Tulkarm is only one piece of the puzzle. Inside Gaza, dissatisfaction with Hamas’s dead-end strategy is growing, as underscored by a Washington Post headline from Monday: “Faced with mounting public anger, a weakened Hamas starts to compromise.”
“With its military power depleted and its political influence on the wane, Hamas is under growing public pressure to help bring the war in Gaza to an end,” reads the piece.
That public pressure, as well as losing its grip in Jenin, are just a few of the many factors behind Hamas dropping its demands that a complete halt to the war and full withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza are preconditions to a deal.
Over the last three months, regional and international dynamics have shifted dramatically, leaving Hamas in its weakest position since the war began.
First, the IDF is continuing to operate in Gaza, further degrading the terrorist organization’s military capabilities.
Second – and this has to do with international dynamics – the election of Donald Trump as US president has infused new energy into Washington’s push for a deal.
The transition between US administrations has created a unique urgency, with outgoing President Joe Biden eager to conclude a deal after investing a lot of time and energy into it, and with Trump wanting to enter office without this issue hanging over his administration.
Trump has made it clear that failure to reach a deal by his January 20 inauguration will have consequences, warning, “There will be hell to pay.”
While it is questionable how much those threats move Hamas leaders in Gaza, they seem to have resonated loudly with Hamas’s state sponsors, particularly Qatar.
Keen to get on Trump’s good side, Qatar is reportedly pressuring Hamas in ways it hadn’t before. This pressure is being felt by Hamas leaders living abroad – in Qatar and Turkey – who, as a result, are reportedly keener on reaching a deal and showing flexibility than Hamas leaders inside Gaza, who are less impacted by this pressure.
The third game-changing factor is the neutralization of Hezbollah in Lebanon. For nearly a year, Hezbollah bombarded Israel with rockets and missiles in solidarity with Hamas. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, explicitly linked the two fronts, declaring that there would be no quiet in the North until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.
But Nasrallah is gone, and Hezbollah has been reduced to a shadow of its former self. Hamas leaders, both those in Gaza and those abroad, now know that salvation from the North is no longer an option – now or in the foreseeable future.
Any hopes Hamas may have had that Iran would quickly be able to rebuild Hezbollah were dashed with the rebel takeover of Syria. Simply put, no one is coming to Hamas’s rescue.
These developments have culminated in considerable motion over the last few days regarding a deal. And this time – because of the significant regional changes and a new president poised to take charge in Washington – that motion might actually lead to real movement and tangible results.
