Arizona State is not in position to be selective about its opponent in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, but that won’t stop the Hotline from assessing the situation through pitchforked-shaped glasses.
And frankly, we aren’t convinced the Sun Devils would be better off facing No. 12 Clemson in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Day.
Most data points suggest they should root for the Tigers to upset No. 5 Texas this weekend in Austin.
The Longhorns are not only the higher-seeded team but also are substantially higher ranked than Clemson (by 13 spots in the final CFP rankings).
Also, the Longhorns are favored by double digits to beat the Tigers and advance to the quarterfinals. The oddsmakers clearly view Texas as the better team, which should not be discounted.
What’s more, the Longhorns have one of the stingiest run defenses in the country, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. That could prove problematic for ASU tailback Cam Skattebo.
And yet, the situation isn’t as clear as those facts suggest:
— Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has won multiple national championships and knows better than any current coach what is required to win on the sport’s grandest stage.
— The Tigers have momentum following their last-second victory in the ACC championship game, whereas Texas is coming off a loss to Georgia in the SEC title game.
— Is Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers a greater threat than Clemson’s Cade Klubnik?
Ewers has thrown 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions against FBS opponents, while Klubnik has thrown five more touchdowns (25) than interceptions (five) against major college teams.
Also, Klubnik is a threat to make plays with his legs; Ewers is not.
Even though Texas has more talent, Clemson might be more dangerous in the quarterfinals, especially given that its campus is two hours from Atlanta. The Tigers would have a massive edge in crowd support against ASU — to a greater extent, perhaps, than the Longhorns.
Add it up, and ASU’s preferred outcome might not be the one the rankings — and the point spread — suggest.
To the picks ..
Season: 70-55-2
Five-star special: 8-7
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from VegasInsider.com
(All times Pacific)
UNLV (+1) vs. Cal (LA Bowl)
Kickoff: Wednesday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: One team lost its head coach; the other lost its quarterback. Will Barry Odom’s departure for Purdue have a greater impact on the Rebels than Fernando Mendoza’s entrance into the transfer portal will have on the Bears? Cal is expected to start either third-stringer CJ Harris or freshman EJ Caminong. We’d rather have UNLV’s problems than Cal’s issues. Pick: UNLV
SMU (+8.5) at Penn State (CFP)
Kickoff: Saturday at 9 a.m. on TNT
Comment: Combine Penn State’s talent with the Beaver Stadium atmosphere and the weather forecast (temperatures in the 20s), and the Mustangs are out of their league three times over with this assignment. Pick: Penn State
Clemson (+11.5) at Texas (CFP)
Kickoff: Saturday at 1 p.m. on TNT
Comment: One of these combatants has zero wins over teams in the final CFP rankings, and it’s the Longhorns, whose SEC schedule did not include Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina or Mississippi. We don’t understand the point spread. Pick: Clemson
Tennessee (+7) at Ohio State (CFP)
Kickoff: Saturday at 5 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The Buckeyes have more than enough talent to win the national championship. Their primary obstacle is psychological in the wake of the Michigan debacle. If they start slowly, the home crowd will zoom past the restless stage and into the realm of infuriated. We think the Wolverines will beat OSU for a second time. Pick: Tennessee
South Florida (+4.5) vs. San Jose State (Hawaii Bowl)
Kickoff: Dec. 24 at 5 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Bulls ended the season with a bad loss (to Rice) and now must fly 5,000 miles to face an opponent that’s quite comfortable in the middle of the Pacific and a coach, Ken Niumatalolo, who grew up on Oahu and will have his team ready to play. Pick: San Jose State
Straight-up winners: UNLV, Penn State, Clemson, Tennessee and San Jose State
Five-star special: Penn State. Familiarize yourself with Nittany Lions tight end Tyler Warren, one of the five or six best offensive players in the country. SMU will have no answer for him.
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