The World Cement Association has predicted that global demand for cement and clinker will decrease more than previously expected by 2050 due to changing market trends and sustainable material advancements.
In its white paper, Long-Term Forecast for Cement and Clinker Demand, the association predicted that global cement use would decrease from 4.2 billion tonnes per year to three billion per year between now and 2050.
The World Cement Association also predicted that demand for clinker, which is the main ingredient in Portland cement and produces large amounts of CO2, will also decrease from 2.8 billion tonnes per year to less than 1.9 billion per year.
Decreasing demand linked to slowing construction in China
According to the association, its predictions were based on regional cement and clinker demand trends, particularly a decrease in use in China, and the adoption of low-carbon practices in the construction industry.
World Cement Association CEO Ian Riley explained that cement demand has been influenced by a decrease in new city developments in some countries as population growth has plateaued.
"The decrease in cement and clinker demand is driven by several factors," he told Dezeen. "Slowing infrastructure and construction activity in markets like China has significantly reduced consumption, where demand has already fallen from 2.4 billion tonnes per annum in 2020 to an estimated 1.8 billion tonnes per annum in 2024."
"Declining or stabilising populations in developed regions have lessened the need for large-scale new developments, further contributing to the reduction in demand."
Riley also said that advancements in clinker alternatives and supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) have helped reduce the reliance on carbon-intensive clinker.
"The growing emphasis on reducing carbon emissions is encouraging the adoption of alternative materials, optimised designs, and strategies to minimise waste," he said. "The development of clinker-free cements and low-carbon alternatives is also playing a key role in this transition."
"Clinker demand is projected to fall from 2.8 billion tonnes per annum in 2024 to less than 1.9 billion by 2050, possibly as low as one billion, depending on the rate of adoption of SCMs and alternative binders," Riley continued.
"The analysis assumes a steady reduction in clinker due to increased SCM availability and technological advancements."
"Cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation"
The World Cement Association published its white paper to provide an accurate overview of global cement and clinker use and inform built environment professionals about planning for lower-carbon building practices.
"The cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation," said Riley. "As we move towards a decarbonised future, understanding the true demand for cement and clinker is critical to ensuring that policies, technologies, and investments align with reality."
"This white paper aims to provide industry leaders and policymakers with the clarity needed to plan effectively and sustainably."
Riley hopes the report's findings will encourage the architecture and construction professions to continue lowering their projects' carbon footprints by designing with minimal concrete and adopting more low-carbon building materials, such as mass timber and geopolymers.
"The decline in cement demand signals a shift towards more sustainable architectural practices, including innovative materials, optimised designs and carbon reduction," he said.
"Lower cement and clinker demand directly contribute to reducing the carbon footprint of construction projects, aligning with global sustainability goals," Riley continued.
"This transition offers an opportunity to create more environmentally friendly buildings and reduce the long-term environmental impact of construction."
Last month, the Global Cement and Concrete Association announced definitions for low-carbon concrete and cement at COP29. Earlier this year, researchers devised a way to recycle waste cement to make low-carbon concrete.
The top photo of Sinoma Cement factory is courtesy of the World Cement Association.
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