Of all the Bears’ disappointments, and there are many, running back D’Andre Swift might be the biggest. They wanted him to be a game-changer, and while that’s happened occasionally, he hasn’t given them consistent production.
The Bears are in the bottom third of the NFL in rushing after finishing in the top two each of the previous two seasons, and Swift is 18th with 742 yards and 24th with five touchdowns.
He was out most of the week because of a groin injury and the Bears listed him as questionable for their game at the Vikings on Monday, but Swift said Saturday he will play.
He leads the team with 1,057 yards from scrimmage and has four of their nine longest plays, but hasn’t been nearly as effective as he was when he made the Pro Bowl for the Eagles last season to earn a three-year, $24 million deal with the Bears.
He’s still on pace to run for close to 1,000 yards, but is averaging a career-low 3.8 per rush, fifth-worst by any back with 100 carries, and the advanced metrics are even more problematic.
NFL Next Gen Stats ranked him the third-most inefficient runner based on ground covered versus yardage gained. It also calculated, using a somewhat subjective formula, that he is getting .61 yards fewer than expected per carry, which is third-worst.
“Just trying to find ways each and every week to be a solution and eliminate negative plays and get yards per carry up,” Swift said. “It’s tough with how the flow of the game has been recently, but you’ve got to find ways to come out on top.”
Interim coach Thomas Brown wants a stronger running game in every facet and said Saturday, “Every running back is dependent on the o-line, but special backs can create for themselves.”
The Bears’ failures are always a group effort.
Not only does the offensive line factor into it, but it’s also difficult for any back to get rhythm without regular carries. “The flow of the game,” as Swift said, is troublesome for a team that typically is trailing.
In their loss to the 49ers, for example, they fell behind 14-0 early and Swift got just 14 carries. Down 24-6, he ran with 4:59 left in the third quarter, then not again until 12:31 left in the fourth — his last touch of the game.
His struggle to nudge the Bears toward first downs is part of that equation, though. He has lost yardage on 26 carries, fifth-most, which accounts for a career-worst 13% of his rushes.
As the Bears examine their third-down woes, they’re scrutinizing what happens on first and second — an ideal window for Swift to contribute. Their average distance to go on third downs is a daunting 7.4 yards.
Swift has gained two yards or fewer on 48% of his carries, which calls his approach into question. He must strike a balance between charging ahead and waiting for a chance at a monster play.
“If a play is supposed be north and south, keep it at that,” he said. “And if I break the line of scrimmage, then be myself."
For perspective, the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley has been held to two or fewer yards just 37% of the time and the Ravens’ Derrick Henry has been stopped for two or fewer on 35%. They’re the top two rushers in the league and MVP candidates.
Both were free agents alongside Smith this year. The bidding got too high for the Bears on Barkley, who signed for three years, $37.8 million, and Henry said choosing the Ravens was “a no-brainer” because of their prestige. He signed for $16 million over two years.
Whoever comes in as the new coach, the Bears and Swift need a better strategy next season. The team has to put him in better situations behind a rebuilt offensive line, and Swift must deliver consistency.
