The A’s quest to fortify their rotation took another big step this morning with the impending acquisition of LHP Jeffrey Springs from Tampa Bay along with 26 year old LHP Jacob Lopez. Going to the Rays are P Joe Boyle, 1B prospect Will Simpson, pitching prospect Jacob Watters, and the A’s Round A comp pick.
To me, this deal is all about Springs’ health going forward as he proved himself to be a legitimate #2-#3 level SP in 2022 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. He has only thrown 49 IP since returning.
Here are the “pluses and deltas” surrounding Springs:
Pluses...
He’s Good
Simply put, a healthy Springs is really good. In 2022 he started 25 games out of 33 overall appearances, logging a 2.46 ERA in 135.1 IP, 114 hits, 31 BB, 144 K, 3.1 WAR.
And it’s not just 2022, in which Springs actually had his lowest K rate from 2020-24. Springs’ K rate has been between 10.09/9 IP and 12.69/9 IP the other 4 seasons.
A Much More Solid Rotation
Rotations need to be good now, and have the depth to be good throughout a 162 game season. Springs gives the A’s a rotation that looks, maybe for the first time, like it could be part of a wild card contending team:
Severino
Springs
Sears
Bido
Spence
Ginn
Estes
Basso
Hoglund
Barnett
Perkins
Waldichuk
There’s your “core 5” followed by the competition for the 5th spot followed by additional depth available as the season progresses. It’s actually looking pretty good all of a sudden.
Affordable
Springs’ contract is a great fit for the A’s right now. He is owed $10.25M in 2025 and again in 2026, low enough that it does not prevent the A’s from further spending to acquire a 3Bman, nor a CFer if they decide to listen to me and prioritize moving JJ Bleday over to LF.
Additionally the team, but not the player, has a $15M option for 2027 ($750K buyout). This means if Springs is a valuable SP (or even a lock down reliever) the A’s have him in 2027 at less than they would have to pay to bring in a mid-rotation SP. But if Springs were to get injured again or lose effectiveness the A’s aren’t on the hook beyond 2026.
Positive Post-TJS Indicators
If you’re wondering “But following TJS, will he ever be the same...?” there are a couple stats to note about Springs.
One is that upon returning from TJS in 2023 Springs actually put up his best stats ever, albeit in a small sample: 16 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 4 BB, 24 K. He was basically Sandy Koufax.
The other notable is that Springs does not need premium velocity in order to thrive. In that 2023 sample his fastball sat at 91.7 MPH and in his terrific 2022 season with 25 starts his fastball sat at 91.4 MPH. His career average is 91.7 MPH.
So if Springs can just regain/maintain velocity of around 91.5 MPH-92.0 MPH he has proven this is enough for him to be an excellent SP given his plus command and secondaries.
Deltas...
Diminished Velo In 2024
Springs did see a drop in his fastball velocity last season, down to 89.8 MPH. This is not uncommon with a return from TJS — sometimes the velocity eventually comes all the way back but other times it just doesn’t.
Like almost every pitcher on the planet, 2 MPH of velocity makes a big difference. While he has proven he can be dominant while throwing “just” 91.4 MPH, and while he was actually pretty effective in 2024 in those 7 starts (33 IP, 34 hits, 11 BB, 37 K, 3.27 ERA) you would not want to see him try to succeed throwing less than 90 MPH.
Fatigue Scare?
Springs was shut down in September, 2024 due to “elbow fatigue”. Was this just a normal part of the post-TJS curve and a smart, proactive and conservative move by the Rays? Or was it an indicator that the elbow was not “good as new” and there could be trouble ahead?
You would hope the A’s have done enough “due diligence” to know that Springs is fully healthy, feeling great now, and ready to pick up where he left off in 2022-23 both in terms of results but also stuff.
But pitchers are just inherently unpredictable in terms of their health and so it’s a risk.
Innings
Due to coming up initially as a reliever and then losing most of 2 seasons to TJS, Springs has only had one season in which he threw more than 44.2 IP. His inning totals as a big leaguer:
2018: 32 IP
2019: 32.1 IP
2020: 20.1 IP
2021: 44.2 IP
2022: 135.1 IP
2023: 16 IP
2024: 33 IP
I suppose you can spin that into a plus: the A’s have Springs for his age 32, 33, and 34 seasons and his arm actually has precious few miles on it going into those years.
But if you’re looking for Springs to make 30 starts or log 180 IP, that’s probably not going to happen anytime soon and you would expect that the A’s will monitor his innings such that he might be a “5 IP pitcher” for a while, or skip some starts along the way to keep him healthy.
I think if the A’s get 25 starts and 150 IP out of Springs they will be thrilled. So he might be more like .8 of a mid-rotation SP than anything.
Conclusion
All trades have risk and upside, all pitchers come with health questions regardless of their past. I am going to make one assumption and it’s that the A’s didn’t make this trade without some reason to believe Springs is physically healthy enough that an objective scout, baseball analyst, or sports doctor would say that he has reason to expect to be healthy and throwing over 91 MPH in 2025.
If that’s the case, I love this trade.
Boyle’s stuff is obviously alluring, but not only can he not hit the broad side of the barn most of the time, when he suddenly shows the ability to throw strikes he has no idea why. Most recently he reverted back to a fireballing pumpkin and there’s no reason to think he’s going to figure out how to consistently throw strikes.
Simpson might be a masher but he’s limited to 1B/DH and the A’s have Brent Rooker (3 years, possibly an extension), Tyler Soderstrom (5 years), and Nick Kurtz (6 years) locking down those positions for years to come. And even if he reaches the big leagues and has some success, it’s likely he will not hit better than any of those 3.
Watters has potential but has not yet seen results (5.86 career ERA mostly at A+ Lansing) and is more of a “lottery ticket” than a coveted prospect. It’s not like the A’s had to part with Luis Morales or Jack Perkins or Mason Barnett or even Kade Morris.
The Round A comp pick hurts, but historically sure it might be a Zack Gelof but more often it’s a Myles Naylor or Ryan Lasko or Tommy White. I don’t like losing it but I like getting Springs enough that I’m ok with it.
Meanwhile, I actually see a lot to like about Jacob Lopez, even if at 26 he is old for a prospect who has never pitched in the big leagues.
Lopez has a career 2.99 ERA in MiLB, with some impressive ratios: 337.2 IP, 253 hits, 136 BB, 425 K, 2.99 ERA.
For reference, those rates are: 6.74 hits/9 IP (fantastic), 3.62 BB/9 IP (medium). 11.33 K/9 IP (fantastic)
Bottom line: the A’s seem actually serious about trying to compete in 2025 and that’s exciting. Actions speak louder than words and we are seeing actions — along with still about $20M-$25M of payroll flexibility available to further improve the team.
Spring is the best time of year for a baseball fan. Springs just made it better.
