Parts of South Africa this year reached the 1.5°C increase limit in temperatures agreed on at COP21 in Paris — much sooner than originally anticipated, said Jennifer Fitchett, a climate researcher and professor at the University of the Witwatersrand.
This week alone, new temperature highs were recorded in several parts of the country, data from the South African Weather Service shows.
Fitchett said every month of this year has been at least 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions.
“The thinking was that the current conditions [the heatwaves and their duration] would happen towards 2030 and later, and they’re happening now,” she said.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to keep the long-term global average surface temperature increase below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
A new temperature record of 37.4°C had been reached in Bethlehem in the Free State this week, higher than the previous record of 36.2 °C set in 2015, said Samkelisiwe Thwala, a forecaster at the South African Weather Service.
In the Northern Cape, Vioolsdrif had recorded a record 45.3°C.
Prieska, Postmasburg and Vaalharts in the Northern Cape, as well as Ladysmith in KwaZulu-Natal, had experienced temperatures of above 40°C.
Fitchett said scorching temperatures are least favourable to nations in Southern Africa because of their reliance on agriculture and tourism — which is sensitive to climate — to boost their economies.
“All of these things together mean that we should be very worried here in Southern Africa, because this is just the start.”
An agroclimatology and climate change researcher at the Agricultural Research Council, Sarah Roffe, said Southern Africa is warming more rapidly than many other regions because of the influence of high-pressure systems.
She said these “tropical high-pressure pulses” are expected to intensify over time.
“These contribute to drier conditions, but also play a very big role in our region warming at a rate that is faster than the global average. In fact, the Southern Africa area is warming at quite an alarming rate compared to many areas across the world.”
Some parts of South Africa had last year experienced a “flash drought” — an intense and rapid onset of dry weather. In combination with poor rains so far this year, these were causing major problems for agricultural production, Roffe said.
“We’ve not really had a great onset of the summer rainfall season. Coupled with the heat, this has resulted in a loss of soil moisture, which affects crops and livestock,” she said.
Thabile Nkunjana, an economist from the National Agricultural Marketing Council, said the heat and dryness were a worry for food production.
“We are seeing sporadic droughts, together with sometimes prolonged drought spells, and the reality is that they are getting worse,” he warned.
“We are experiencing quite unusual climate patterns that are somehow linked to climate change. These are creating uncertainty about how we are going to be able to produce our food.”
Twelve and 24-month standard precipitation index maps in the October drought bulletin of the weather service show that conditions across South Africa have been somewhat dry, with moderately dry to extremely dry conditions over the Northern Cape, Gauteng, North-West, Limpopo, the northern half of the Free State, northern and eastern parts of the Eastern Cape and eastern parts of Mpumalanga.
Nkunjana said substantial rainfall is needed to alleviate dry conditions in these areas. Although there has been some rain, most was concentrated in small regions.
He added that farmers who would normally plant crops in mid-October would have to wait until the end of November to early December to plant, because the soil is not in a suitable state.
In drought-affected areas such as the Northern Cape, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape, “livestock is dying because there hasn’t been rain for quite some time”.
“This is very unusual for this time of the year,” Nkunjana said. “We are really experiencing quite unpredictable circumstances.”
In terms of crop production, he said South Africa had seen a fall in the production of soya beans, and a slight reduction in maize and dry beans as a result of drought.
Fitchett said that although the trend over the next few decades would be towards greater warmth, there could be occasional “cool year” interruptions.
“We could have a very cool December between now and 2030 or 2040 because of all of the interplays between the different drivers,” she said.
Roffe stressed the importance of human economic activity as a major driver in changing weather patterns.
These factors included car emissions, electricity production and consumption, as well as agriculture, which is a notable emitter of greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide.
“Those greenhouse gases basically sit in the atmosphere and they trap heat, and that’s the problem,” she added.
