Can Milan secure top 8 league phase finish in Champions League? How Christian Pulisic can make the difference

AC Milan has turned its Champions League campaign around after a rocky start, but securing a top-eight finish in the new league phase remains a steep challenge. Following four consecutive wins, including a standout 3-1 victory over Real Madrid, the Rossoneri have climbed to 12th in the table. With 17 teams separated by just three points (10-13 points), the Rossoneri’s position remains precarious.

Milan currently sits just one point outside the coveted top-eight spots. However, goal difference—a critical tiebreaker—could play a decisive role, especially given the club’s relatively weak standing in this metric. Football Meets Data gives Milan a 46% chance of finishing in the top 8, but this probability is highly contingent on their ability to win both remaining matches: Girona (home) and Dinamo Zagreb (away).

If Paulo Fonseca’s players achieve maximum points from these games, they would reach 18 points. Yet, even this tally doesn’t guarantee a top-eight finish, as rivals with stronger goal differences could edge them out.

The Champions League’s league phase format compresses the competition, with every team playing eight games in a single table. The top eight advance directly to the Round of 16, while teams finishing between 9th and 16th must contest playoff rounds. Finishing outside the top 24 means elimination from European play entirely.

With clubs like Liverpool and Barcelona already securing their places, Milan must contend with a crowded mid-table battle featuring clubs separated by narrow margins. Consistency and discipline will be key, as even one slip-up could derail their campaign.

Christian Pulisic’s role in Milan’s push

Christian Pulisic has been a revelation for the Serie A giants this season, scoring eight goals and providing five assists in 19 appearances across all competitions. The USMNT international’s performances have injected creativity and goalscoring into Milan’s attack. However, a torn calf muscle suffered against Atalanta means he is sidelined until at least late December.

How Pulisic impacts Milan’s chances

• Attacking Depth – Pulisic’s ability to score crucial goals, especially in high-stakes matches, has been a cornerstone of Milan’s resurgence. His absence leaves a gap that players like Rafael Leao, Yunus Musah, and Samuel Chukwueze must fill.
• Big-Game Experience – As a Champions League winner with Chelsea, Pulisic brings vital experience in navigating intense European campaigns. His return could be pivotal in January if Milan progresses to the knockout stages.

The 26-year-old current injury timeline suggests he may return around late December or early January. He is expected to be available for critical fixtures such as the Italian Super Cup semifinal against Juventus on January 3. While his absence for the remaining league-phase games is a setback, his form upon return could prove decisive for Milan’s knockout-round ambitions.