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General Motors' white flag in the robotaxi race on Tuesday just made the autonomous ride-sharing competition much smaller in the US, showing how challenging it can be for companies, even with the capital, to compete if they haven't already made significant headway in autonomy.
Eight years and more than $10 billion in investment later, GM said that the resource-intensive nature of Cruise and an increasingly competitive market has pushed the company to shift away from its robotaxi dreams. The company said in a statement that GM will be focusing on building up its advanced driver assistance systems for "personal vehicles."
The decision was seen by many analysts as an implicit ceding of the robotaxi race to a few companies who are already far ahead in the game, namely Tesla and Waymo.
"We believe GM's move also potentially implies that other companies (Tesla & Waymo) have better tech and/or that the market may not be appealing for later entrants," BofA analyst John Murphy wrote in a note. "Waymo is already offering a robotaxi service across several US cities and Tesla plans to launch its service in 2025."
While Chinese companies continue to make strides in autonomous ride-sharing services, including Baidu's Apollo, Gene Munster, managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management, told Business Insider that he believes autonomous vehicles in the western world will be "powered by two or three companies."
Part of the reason is because delivering robotaxis requires solving the autonomous driving equation and only a few companies like Tesla, Waymo, and Amazon have the resources — and shown the goods, to varying degrees — to do so, Munster said.
"We look at 2,000 companies a year that are cutting-edge tech companies, and we never see anybody trying to solve for autonomy," said Munster, who follows the autonomous vehicle industry. "The reason why is that this ship has basically sailed. It's going to be one of those three."
That GM has decided to pull back its Cruise operations is not an indictment against the business opportunity robotaxis itself presents — GM likely made a prudent move to shift its priorities, Tom Narayan of RBC Capital Markets wrote in an analyst note.
Safety incidents involving Cruise's fleet however kept putting the company at odds with regulators.
The company was stripped of its permit to operate in California after a woman was dragged underneath one of its vehicles last October, essentially paving a clear path for Waymo to get ahead of GM in the state.
Waymo began offering ride-sharing services to a few major cities this year and announced plans to expand to the Miami public in 2026. As of October, the Alphabet-owned company said it now provides more than 100,000 paid rides per week.
A Waymo spokesperson declined to provide comment.
Amazon's Zoox is gearing up to offer public rides in Las Vegas and San Francisco in 2025, differentiating itself from competitors through its unique carriage-style vehicles that don't come with a steering wheel. The company also recently hired a key Tesla autopilot executive.
Tesla has yet to provide commercial rides through its recently debuted Cybercab, but analysts are giddy about the company's timeline. CEO Elon Musk said during an earnings call in October that a $25,000 Cybercab will reach volume production by 2026.
Munster noted another advantage Tesla has is its potential to scale autonomous services, given that there are millions of Tesla vehicles on the road today. Those vehicles also provide large amounts of data to help Tesla fine-tune its Full Self-Driving feature.
"My sense is that this is a big data, large language model type of problem," Munster said. "I think that the advantages that Tesla will gain in data will outpace the disadvantage that they have in hardware."
Representatives for Zoox and Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
