A reaction to the latest rumors on the Royals.
The Winter Meetings came and went without the Royals making a single transaction, despite what looks like a market that is moving a bit quicker than the glacial movement of the last few off-seasons. But remember (a) the Royals didn’t make any major moves at the Winter Meetings last year and added Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe in the week afterward, and (b) the Royals have already made two significant moves re-signing Wacha and adding Jonathan India.
Still, there is still much to do if they want to solidify their position as a contender. According to various reports, mostly from MLB.com writer Anne Rogers, the Royals want to add another middle-of-the-order bat, fill out their bench with someone that has positional versatility, and add a swingman pitcher who can start or relieve.
Picollo acknowledged the quiet week, describing his approach to the market.
“You can’t force it. You’re trying to be opportunistic when things come along. It’s like when we signed Wacha, it’s like, ‘OK, now we have some excess pitching to try to get India. Now that India’s on our team, what’s our team look like? Eventually, we’ll hit on the right move, the right free agent and go, ‘This one makes sense.’”
There are two different approaches GMs can take to an off-season. One is to be aggressive and get the kind of transactions you want. You grab the kind of player you think can make your team a winner, or you trade away a player that you need to get off your roster. The advantage to that approach is you accomplish a focused directive, but the downside is that sometimes you may overpay for a player or in a trade to make it happen.
The second approach is to be more patient and work with the market and look for arbitrage where you can find it. You improve your roster by adding value even if it may not fit exactly the profile of the kind of transaction you’re looking for. The advantage to this approach is you get good value in deals, but the downside is the pieces on the roster may not necessarily fit together that well.
I think Picollo wanted to take the former approach when it came to his primary objectives - adding an on-base hitter and preserving the core of his rotation. That’s why he jumped on re-signing Michael Wacha (it helped that Wacha wanted to stay) and that actually made it easier to pull the trigger on a deal to move Brady Singer for Jonathan India. He seems to be taking the latter approach to fill out the roster. The remaining objectives this winter could be filled by a lot of different candidates, and the Royals may not be particularly choosy who it is, so long as they get good value.
Getting good value is necessary when you’re a small market club, after all. The Royals may be hitting up against their payroll limitations according to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon at The Athletic.
The Kansas City Royals expect their payroll to be in the same $120 million range it was last season, according to sources briefed on their plans. FanGraphs estimates the team’s current payroll is $116 million, leaving little flexibility for the front office to acquire the additional hitter it is seeking.
Rogers adds the Royals have “limited payroll flexibility.” However, budgets in baseball are not inelastic. Picollo has indicated before that there is an understanding of how much they spend, and if the team comes to ownership and wants to add a player that would take them over their projected number, there is flexibility to approve that kind of transaction. Think of the $120 million number as a recommendation, but not a hard cap.
But with those numbers in mind, the report from Rosenthal and Sammon that the Royals are seeking a trade to find a hitter rather than free agency makes more sense.
Per a team source briefed on Kansas City’s moves, the Royals plan to pursue a middle-of-the-order bat and are more likely to acquire that bat through a trade than free agency. This will not rule out the possibility of acquiring another pitcher or bench player, but the priority remains to add a slugger.
The free agent market is not a great one, but inflation seems to have hit that market as well ($17 million for Michael Conforto????). There are some decent bats potentially available that could help the Royals. I think a Cody Bellinger or Nolan Arenado is out of the question due to cost, and the asking price for Alec Bohm seems too high, but a Taylor Ward (and there are reports the Angels are close to trading an outfielder) or an unsexy but solid pickup like Mike Yastrzemski could be possible and still be an upgrade over what the Royals have.
The trade of India and potentially an additional trade to bring in another hitter does raise questions about the incumbents in the lineup, namely Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia, Hunter Renfroe, and MJ Melendez. Rogesr notes that Renfroe and Melendez haven’t drawn trade interest - no surprise there. But reading between the lines, the team does seem to be shopping Garcia, despite his recent elbow surgery (he should be ready for spring training). Rogers reports his name has come up in talks with teams attracted to his ability to play shortstop. But when asked about Garcia’s role this year, manager Matt Quatraro was quick to emphasize his versatility.
“We’ve seen his versatility. He is the shortstop if something were to happen to Bobby (Witt). He can play second. We’ve put him in the outfield a couple times. I know in the spring we’ll just move him around, but primarily at third base.”
That doesn’t sound like someone that is set to be your everyday third baseman. Garcia took a step back offensively, and while his defense is solid, the Royals clearly need upgrades in the lineup. If the outfield is unmoveable, then third base seems like the best place to start. And if Garcia still has value - unlike Melendez - then it makes sense to offer him in trades.
The Royals have been linked to free agent Josh Rojas in reports, but he seems more like an heir to the annual Chris Owings/Garrett Hampson roster spot the Royals like to reserve each year. The club is supposedly open to bringing Adam Frazier back, although you have to think he is Plan B (or Plan C) at this point. If they really wanted to bring him back, he’d be back - he’s not at home mulling over numerous offers from teams.
Brett Baty is a more interesting possibility, someone that would likely start at third base for the Royals if they picked him up. I can’t say I’m a big fan - he had early prospect status but the tools never seemed to translate into loud numbers in the minors. I get the idea of buying low on a guy with the hopes your hitting development can unlock more potential. But the Royals shouldn’t be in development mode (and their hitting development track record has had mixed results). They have a contention window now they need to take advantage of, and it doesn’t make a lot of sense to trade out one young developing player (Garcia) for another (Baty).
I think Massey could be on the move, but while I think he’s a decent enough hitter, I don’t know that there will be much of a market for him. He has a very low on-base average and has trouble staying on the field. Teams could want him, but it seems likely to be one of those situations where he is more valuable to the Royals than what they’re being offered. I can see him filling more of a utility role - India likely won’t be at second base every day anyway with his subpar defense. We’ll see if either is asked to play some outfield in spring training.
Look for the Royals to be more active in the next few weeks. I like what they’ve done so far, but the pieces don’t quite fit and it will be important for them to make the right moves and capitalize on their success this year.
