With the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, an ongoing Turkish-backed campaign by the Syrian National Army (SNA) rebels against the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) threatens to unravel Syria’s only stable region, jeopardizing the counter-Islamic State mission and U.S. interests. By pressuring the SDF and eyeing control of Northeastern Syria, Turkey and its SNA seeks to force the United States to withdraw its 900 troops.
The United States must support its Kurdish and Arab SDF partners to avert an impending humanitarian and security crisis, mediate between the SDF and Turkey, and maintain leverage in shaping Syria’s future amid evolving regional geopolitics. Pulling out now would cede the region to instability and hostile actors, undermining years of hard-fought gains.
While some in Washington may see Turkey’s campaign as a counterbalance to Iran’s regional ambitions, this view overlooks the dangers posed by rebel groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—led by former local Al Qaeda affiliate Abu Muhammad al-Jolani—and the SNA, both of which espouse hardline Islamist and jihadist ideologies.
While HTS spearheads governance in Damascus, the SNA focuses on battling Kurds on Turkey’s behalf. Videos have surfaced of SNA fighters abusing SDF captives while thousands of Kurdish civilians flee to the east. These actions echo the atrocities and mass displacements of Kurds and minorities during the SNA’s 2018 and 2019 campaigns, prompting SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi to warn of their precarious fate in rebel-held areas.
Washington’s initial silence on Turkish-backed attacks against SDF-held territories gave way to a promising step with its mediation earlier this week between the SDF and Ankara to end clashes over the northern Syrian town of Manbij. However, as of December 12, backed by Turkish firepower, the SNA has renewed its campaign against the SDF forces stationed around Tishrin Dam on the Euphrates. While SDF forces could be convinced to withdraw to areas east of the Euphrates, there should be guarantees that they would not be attacked there by Turkey and its Syrian proxies. The recent visit by CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla to Northeast Syria has signaled U.S. support for its SDF partners. America must maintain its small but effective troop presence there. Doing so will ensure security in northern Syria and retain American influence in shaping the country’s evolving dynamics.
American policymakers must recognize the high stakes in Syria. Abandoning the SDF would unleash chaos and empower hostile actors—especially ISIS, now at its strongest since 2019. ISIS has launched nearly 600 attacks across Syria in 2024 alone. The turmoil could lead to the escape of nearly 10,000 ISIS prisoners and tens of thousands of family members, many of whom are radicalized, from SDF-run camps. Such a scenario could trigger a severe humanitarian crisis, forcing local populations to flee the deteriorating security conditions. Believing that Turkey and its Syrian proxies can secure prisons and camps holding ISIS prisoners and their families amid extensive conflict is highly unrealistic.
The outgoing Biden administration should unequivocally warn Turkey and its proxy factions against further incursions into SDF-held areas. The expected visit of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Ankara on December 13 should prioritize this and lay the foundation for reviving direct negotiations between Syrian Kurds and Ankara that halted in 2015.
As a NATO ally, Turkey is a key player whose concerns cannot be overlooked. Pursuing win-win solutions is vital, and with time running out for the current administration, the bulk of the diplomatic effort will fall to the incoming Trump administration, which successfully brokered challenging deals like the Abraham Accords in its first term. Washington can support the SDF while preserving its relationship with Ankara. A mutually beneficial arrangement could address Turkey’s security concerns while ensuring the SDF’s survival and the safety of millions under its governance. On December 6, SDF Commander Abdi pragmatically expressed readiness to ease tensions with Ankara.
To start, Washington should encourage the SDF and its civilian administration to include Kurdish and other local non-SNA-HTS Arab factions that are more acceptable to Ankara. Such inclusivity could facilitate Turkey’s engagement with the SDF-run administration in Northeast Syria. Strengthening trade and energy ties could transform Turkish-SDF relations, as seen with Turkey’s shift toward Iraqi Kurdistan after years of hostility. Ankara’s recent openness to peace talks with its Kurdish population offers a key opportunity for broader reconciliation with Syrian Kurds, which Washington must seize.
Stabilizing the SDF-Turkish relationship would free Washington’s hands to shape Syria’s future through its SDF allies. The SDF stands out as the only secular force in Syria, with a proven track record of diverse and representative governance. As Syria transitions to a post-Assad phase, largely dominated by Islamists of various stripes, the SDF has the potential to serve as a unifying magnet for secular, liberal, and civic-minded Syrians, as well as the country’s diverse minority communities—including Christians, Druze, Yazidis, Shia, and Alawites—forming a strong counterweight to radical Islamist forces.
Encouragingly, key figures like National Security Advisor-designate Mike Waltz and Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio have shown a strong grasp of Syria’s complexities and opposed premature U.S. withdrawal. There is also growing bipartisan support for protecting the SDF. The low-cost U.S. troop presence in SDF-controlled areas provides substantial strategic value, preserving U.S. influence in a geopolitically critical portion of the northern Middle East.
Abandoning the SDF and the Kurdish population in Syria would probably leave them no choice but to seek support from Iran. Pro-Iran paramilitary groups, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, are stationed just across the border from SDF-held areas in Iraq, providing Iran with an opportunity to reenter the Syrian scene, potentially exacerbating the conflict with Turkey.
The United States must ensure the SDF’s inclusion in any discussions about Syria’s future, in line with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 or any future internationally endorsed framework. Supporting the SDF’s survival would also help restore U.S. credibility with partners across the region following years of waning confidence in its commitments.
Mohammed A. Salih is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute and an independent researcher and consultant. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has written extensively on Kurdish and regional affairs for prominent international media outlets and think tanks for nearly two decades. Follow him on X: @MohammedASalih.
Shukriya Bradost is a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington and a doctoral candidate at Virginia Tech. She specializes in international security and Middle East affairs and is a regular media contributor on regional issues. Follow her on X @ShukriyaBradost.
Image: Olmo Couto / Shutterstock.com.
