BEST BET
BUCCANEERS at CHARGERS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 3.
Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 7-6/8-5; Chargers 8-5/9-4.
Who knows if the Bears could have hired Jim Harbaugh if general manager Ryan Poles had fired Matt Eberflus after last season to align an offensive coach with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. But since we’ll never know — the Bears didn’t even try to court the former Bears quarterback, who depending on which seemingly knowledgeable source you believe either wanted to coach the Bears or had zero interest — Harbaugh is making the Bears look bad with his success in his first season with the Chargers.
Under Harbaugh, the Chargers, who lost eight of their last nine games to finish 5-12 last season — and fired GM Tom Telesco and coach Brandon Staley in the process — are 8-5 and in the thick of the playoff hunt.
Of course, Justin Herbert is a great piece for any coach to start with. But Harbaugh had his share of hurdles to clear to return the Chargers to playoff contention.
The Chargers, in fact, lost their three best weapons — running back Austin Ekeler signed with the Commanders in free agency. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was traded to the Bears. And veteran wide receiver Mike Williams was released in a salary-cap move.
And despite having talented pass rushers in a rejuvenated Khalil Mack (17 sacks) and Joey Bosa (6.5 sacks in nine games), Harbaugh inherited a defense that was 24th in points and 28th in yards last season.
Harbaugh has done an admirable job of overcoming those obstacles. He hasn’t taken Herbert to a new level as was anticipated. Herbert has a career-low 212.6 passing yards per game and 14 touchdown passes — though only one interception for a career-high 98.4 passer rating. But while the offense is 20th in scoring, the defense under coordinator Jesse Minter leads the NFL in points allowed.
Still, there’s room for doubt about the Chargers as much as hope. They’ve beaten only one team with a winning record (the 8-5 Broncos). Their strength-of-victory is the third lowest in the NFL (35-69, .337).
Then again, their five losses have come against opponents with a composite 50-15 (.769) record. They haven’t lost to a team worse than 8-5. They’ve lost twice to the Chiefs — 17-10 at SoFi Stadium in Week 4 and 19-17 at Arrowhead last week.
The Chargers look like a team headed for an early fall if they make the playoffs. But you can’t discount the Harbaugh Factor. Pick: Chargers 24, Buccaneers 20.
TOP PLAYS
CHIEFS at BROWNS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Chiefs by 4.
Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 12-1/5-8; Browns 3-10/6-7.
Outlook: The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are taking “uncanny” to another level — they have failed to cover in their last seven yet are 6-1 SU in that span. (It’s tied for the longest non-cover streak since 2021, when the Panthers went 0-9 SU/ATS). Browns have beaten the Ravens (-9) and Steelers (-3½), so they’re capable, but while the trend is your friend, the Chiefs are due.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Browns 17.
COLTS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Broncos by 4.
Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 6-7/8-5; Broncos 8-5/10-3.
Outlook: Sean Payton continues to do a bang-up job with Bo Nix and the Broncos. They were averaging 19.7 points through 10 weeks (22nd in the NFL) but have averaged an NFL-high 36 in their last three games — victories over the Falcons (38-6), Raiders (29-19) and Browns (41-32). Broncos are 7-2-1 at home in December since 2021.
Pick: Broncos 30, Colts 17.
PATRIOTS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 6.
Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 3-10/5-7-1; Cardinals 6-7/8-5.
Outlook: The upstreaming Patriots are just what the Cardinals need after losing their last three games. The Seahawks have their number, winning 30-18 at State Farm Stadium last week. But the Cardinals responded well, even in defeat vs. the Vikings, after losing to the Seahawks in Week 12.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Patriots 17.
THE REST OF THE GAMES
BEARS at VIKINGS
Time: 7 p.m., Monday, ABC 7.
Line: Vikings by 7. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bears 4-9/6-5-2; Vikings 11-2/8-4-1.
Outlook: The Bears have lost seven consecutive games and fired Matt Eberflus in that stretch. Still, their three division losses are by a combined seven points (3-0 ATS), including a 30-27 loss in OT to the Vikes at home in Week 12. But they’ve lost the benefit of the doubt at this point.
Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 13.
DOLPHINS at TEXANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 47.
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 6-7/5-8; Texans 8-5/5-6-2.
Outlook: The Texans play well against top-flight competition — the Lions (26-23 loss), Packers (24-22 loss) and Bills (23-20 win) —but not as well vs. losing teams. That makes this a tricky game vs. the improving Dolphins.
Pick: Texans 24, Dolphins 20.
COMMANDERS at SAINTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Commanders by 7½. Total: 43.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 8-5/8-4-1; Saints 5-8/5-8.
Outlook: The hook seems a little daunting here — winning teams are just 18-10-1 ATS (.638) over the last two weeks (they were 149-25-5, .846 over the first 12 weeks). Commanders are 8-0 ATS when they win.
Pick: Commanders 27, Saints 23.
JETS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jets by 3½. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 3-10/4-9; Jaguars 3-10/7-5-1.
Outlook: Trying to figure out the Jets is like trying to figure out Aaron Rodgers. Jaguars are 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in their last eight games after beating the Titans on the road last week. Jets took the Dolphins to OT.
Pick: Jets 24, Jaguars 21.
COWBOYS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Panthers by 2½. Total: 43.
Records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 5-8/4-8-1; Panthers 3-10/6-7.
Outlook: Bryce Young is clearing a lowered bar, but his modest resurgence — an 83.0 rating (4 TDs, 1 INT) in his last four games — is giving the Panthers a chance. The Panthers are 2-3 SU/5-0 ATS in their last five after starting 1-7 SU/ATS in their first eight.
Pick: Panthers 24, Cowboys 23.
BENGALS at TITANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bengals by 5. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 5-8/7-6; Titans 3-10/2-11.
Outlook: The Bengals needed a late break to win (and cover) vs. the Cowboys last week. But the Titans are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS at home.
Pick: Bengals 34, Titans 24.
RAVENS at GIANTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Ravens by 16½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 8-5/6-6-1; Giants 2-11/3-9-1.
Outlook: The Ravens are 13-3 SU/9-7 ATS coming off a bye under John Harbaugh but have failed to cover the last four years.
Pick: Ravens 31, Giants 13.
BILLS at LIONS
Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Lions -2½. Total: 54½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 10-3/8-5; Lions 12-1/9-4.
Outlook: Lions are on long rest and at home for the third consecutive week. Bills are on the road again after losing to the Rams last week.
Pick: Lions 35, Bills 31.
STEELERS at EAGLES
Time: 3:25 p.m., Fox 32.
Line: Eagles by 5. Total: 42.
Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 10-3/10-3; Eagles 11-2/8-5.
Outlook: Russell Wilson has a 103.9 passer rating (12 TDs, 3 INTs) in six starts. But he hasn’t faced a defense like the Eagles.
Pick: Eagles 23, Steelers 17.
PACKERS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 7:20 pm., NBC 5.
Line: Packers by 2½. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 9-4/7-6; Seahawks 8-5/6-6-1.
Outlook: Seahawks have won four straight (4-0 ATS) — three on the road, but are 3-4 SU/2-3-1 ATS at home. Packers on long rest.
Pick: Packers 27, Seahawks 21.
FALCONS at RAIDERS
Time: 7:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 6-7/5-8; Raiders 2-11/5-8.
Outlook: With calls for Michael Penix picking up, Kirk Cousins will be motivated to break his slump vs. the Raiders’ 30th-ranked defense.
Pick: Falcons 30, Raiders 23.
