NBA odds, betting preview (Dec. 12): Raptors vs. Heat predictions

The Toronto Raptors will visit the Miami Heat on Thursday for the third of four meetings between the teams this season.

These teams split a home-and-home series less than two weeks ago, with the home side capturing the win in both of those contests. Miami claimed a 121-111 victory on its home floor against the Raptors on Nov. 29, covering the eight-point spread as favourites. Two nights later, the Raptors rebounded with a 119-116 win over Miami at Scotiabank Arena as 4.5-point underdogs.

Toronto is looking to avoid a fourth straight loss after going 2-3 (4-1 against the spread) on a five-game homestand that ended with a 113-118 loss to the New York Knicks on Monday.

Miami, meanwhile, is looking for a fourth straight win and cover after dispatching the Cleveland Cavaliers, Phoenix Suns, and Los Angeles Lakers over the last week or so.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Thursday’s clash between the Raptors and Heat:

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Betting Toronto Raptors (7-18 SU, 17-8 ATS, 12-13 o/u)

Just when the Raptors were starting to get some healthy bodies back in their lineup, the team encountered another injury setback Monday when Scottie Barnes suffered a right ankle injury that will likely keep him out for a few weeks. Barnes was averaging career highs of 20.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists before succumbing to his second major injury of the season. He missed roughly a month earlier this year due to an orbital fracture.

The Raptors have lost 107 man games to injury/illness this season. Only the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies have lost more. But what’s more upsetting is that the Raptors have yet to have their five regular starters active at the same time. They’ve only played with four regular starters in eight of 25 games, never in more than two straight. From a betting perspective, we still haven’t seen this team’s true potential yet.

Despite the copious amounts of injuries, the Raptors are still one of the best NBA teams against the spread with a 17-8 mark. Only the Cleveland Cavaliers (18-7) and Grizzlies (17-7-1) boast better ATS records than the Raptors.

Betting Miami Heat (12-10 SU, 11-11 ATS, 13-9 o/u)

The Heat are at an important juncture in their season as they evaluate whether or not they’re real contenders in the Eastern Conference. Rumours are swirling that pending free agent Jimmy Butler is on the trade block, although those rumours have been shot down by Butler’s agent. The 36-year-old superstar has a player option worth just north of $52 million for next season, but he’s very likely to decline it and opt for free agency. The six-time All-Star is still seeking his first NBA title, and is running out of time to add a championship to his legacy.

So far, the Heat have responded well to the trade winds with three consecutive wins against formidable opponents to shoot up to fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. They’ve scored 120 or more points in each of those contests, tying the longest 120+ point streak in team history from Nov. 28-Dec. 3 last season.

Raptors vs. Heat injuries

G Immanuel Quickley (elbow), F Scottie Barnes (ankle), and F Bruce Brown (conditioning) are all out for the Raptors.

G Josh Richardson (heel) is out for Miami. G Pelle Larsson (ankle) is doubtful, and F Jimmy Butler (knee soreness) is probable.

Raptors vs. Heat betting trends

• The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings.
• The Heat are 4-2 ATS in the past six meetings.
• The over is 5-1 in Miami’s last six games.
• Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.

Raptors vs. Heat player prop trends

• Jakob Poeltl has recorded three or more assists in four straight games, averaging 4.5 per game during that span. He’s around -130 to notch over 2.5 assists.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. has recorded a steal in five straight games and seven of his last 10. He’s around -165 to record over 0.5 steals.
• Davion Mitchell has failed to score eight or more points in 10 straight games, although he could see an uptick in minutes and usage on Thursday with Barnes out. He’s around -113 to record under 8.5 points.

Raptors vs. Heat best bet

• RJ Barrett over 1.5 3-pointers: -125 (best odds at BetVictor). With Barnes out, Barrett will once again be counted on to be the primary offensive option for the Raptors. He’s hit this mark in seven of his last 10 games, including in both of the previous contests this season against the Heat. Miami is allowing its opponents to shoot 36 percent from deep this season, which ranks in the middle of the pack. We’re getting good value here (55.5 percent implied odds) on a mark Barrett has achieved in 14 of 22 games (64 percent) this season.

The post NBA odds, betting preview (Dec. 12): Raptors vs. Heat predictions first appeared on Raptors Republic.