Does it make sense in a vacuum? Not really. Beyond the vacuum? Potentially!
There’s a report out there that the Cincinnati Reds have ‘checked in’ on free agent starting pitcher Nick Pivetta already this offseason, something that may dovetail with their reported interest in former Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet after he was dealt to the Boston Red Sox, not the Reds.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post relayed the news.
The Reds, who tried for Garrett Crochet, have checked in on Nick Pivetta.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 11, 2024
Pivetta received a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox as he reached free agency after the 2024 season. Pivetta, who’ll turn 32 in February, turned down the QO, instead opting to enter free agency with draft pick penalties coming to any team that signs him on the back of a 2024 season in which he fired 145.2 IP of 4.14 ERA/4.07 FIP ball.
It’s a gamble on his part on the skyrocketing cost of starting pitching, really, especially when you factor in that his previous trio of seasons weren’t any better - 4.39 ERA/4.24 FIP across a total of 477.1 IP. The durability has been there, which matters a lot, but it’s not as if he’s entering a free agency frenzy on the backs of some Cy Young caliber years, or anything.
At his age, though, it’s likely Pivetta will still be in-line for a guarantee beyond the $21.05 million he’d have earned in 2025 had he accepted the QO from Boston, even if that means the signing team has to forfeit a draft pick. That said, if he signs a revenue-sharing receiving team - like the Cincinnati Reds - the Reds would only have to forfeit their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft.
That’s significant, obviously, but given that the Reds landed a Competitive Balance Round A pick last week, it would end up being their 2nd round pick - somewhere around overall pick #49.
For a team that enjoys building through the draft (and by recouping prospects via trade), that’s still a tough price to pay to sign a guy who, at best, would ideally slot in as their fourth or fifth best starter...if all their current starting pitching options are still around and in-play. It’s that latter part that makes me think the Reds are checking in on Pivetta on the off-chance they end up dealing one of their established big league starters for a bat to address offensive holes in the outfield (or beyond).
Nick Krall has intimated this offseason that teams aren’t necessarily as interested in acquiring ‘prospects’ in deals as they are landing players who are already big leaguers, something that was echoed in his deal of Jonathan India to Kansas City for pitcher Brady Singer back in November. So, in his quest to find an impact bat (that ideally plays the outfield), it’s wouldn’t be surprising to hear that a) the team said impact oufielder plays for has asked for an established big leaguer in return or b) said established big leaguer in return is one of Cincinnati’s prized young starting pitchers.
So, in lieu of holding tight to his current pitching staff and allocating money in excess of $21.05 million to bring in a bat, Krall & Co. may well be kicking the tires on bringing in Pivetta and dealing one of their current young pitchers for an impact bat who’s slated to make a lot, lot less than that. This, in essence, would be their backfill plan, something similar to what they did last year when instead of spending big on an outfield bat they spent big on infielder Jeimer Candelario and backfilled the outfield void by moving Spencer Steer out there full-time (even the injuries eventually derailed that plan).
I’m spitballing here, but maybe that’s a guy like Tampa’s Josh Lowe, who struggled in 2024 but mashed to a 130 OPS+ in 2023 (and isn’t even arb-eligible until next year). Maybe it’s one of the coveted young Arizona Diamondback outfield options. You get the gist - a guy who’s controllable for four, five, six years and would make dealing one of Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, or Rhett Lowder seem much more palatable.
Maybe, just maybe, it’s in a huge deal for breakout Oaklamento A’s outfielder Lawrence Butler. Wouldn’t that be fun?
