Stats don’t tell the full story of Mitchell’s play
Let’s play a fun game! I’m going to give you two stat lines, and you tell me which one is Donovan Mitchell.
Player A: 27.1 points on a 54 effective field goal percentage, with 36.8% shooting from three. Additionally, Player A averages 6.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game.
Player B: 26.8 points on a 55.1 eFG%, with 41.1% shooting from three. Player B also averages 4.9 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game.
If you guessed that Donovan Mitchell was Player A, congratulations—you’re correct! That stat line reflects his impressive performance per 36 minutes numbers during the 2023-24 season. But here’s the twist: If you guessed that Donovan Mitchell was Player B, you’d also be right! That stat line showcases his current production per 36 minutes.
There has been a lot of chatter online about how despite the Cleveland Cavaliers owning the best record in the NBA, fans wish that Mitchell was playing at a higher level. Terms like “struggling” or “slumping” appear on my timeline quite frequently when it comes to Mitchell’s play. The question I have to the Cavaliers fan base at large is, do you need Mitchell to put the team on his back on a night-to-night to think he is playing elite basketball?
The basis of the disappointments in Mitchell’s play stems from his counting stats being down as well as his assist and passing numbers. There are a few reasons for this type of regression.
In terms of scoring dipping for Mitchell, there are a few factors: One is Mitchell is playing fewer minutes per game than at any point in his career. Mitchell is currently averaging 31.9 minutes. At this pace not only would this be the lowest points per game in his career but it would be three minutes less than last season.
The overall play of the surrounding Cavaliers is another factor in Mitchell’s per game numbers taking a dip. Mitchell last season truly felt like the engine of the offense. He dictated how the team would perform. For reference, last season, in games where Mitchell scored less than 25 points the Cavaliers were 11-11. This season, the Cavaliers are 11-2 with those same parameters. This is a clear sign that the Cavaliers aren’t reliant on Mitchell to lead them every night. That is the sign of a team that can sustain long-term success, not one that is a Mitchell off night away from a rough game.
Mitchell is in the midst of one of the more impactful seasons in his career as well. The Cavs are currently 11.2 points better per 100 possessions with Mitchell on the floor compared to when he’s off. That’s the highest differential in his career since his 2020-2021 season with the Utah Jazz. The same is true for the offense’s efficiency as they’ve registered a 57.4 effective field goal percentage when he’s on the court. That’s the highest among any team that he’s played for.
Mitchell hasn’t had to be a true heliocentric player like in past seasons for the Cavaliers. It would make sense that last season, Mitchell was averaging an extra 1.3 assists per game then. His number was called in all facets, whether scoring or plate setting for his struggling teammates.
This season, the Cavaliers have the most efficient offense in the league. The team does not need to rely on his gravity to generate quality looks. The team’s movement and activity make defenses scramble at all times, regardless of who is on the ball. Mitchell has also benefited from this level of play, as this season is tied for his highest assisted rate in his career at 38%. This means that Mitchell is getting more looks from his teammates than at any other point in his career.
Mitchell is currently in the midst of another All-NBA season. He is operating with hyper-efficiency and is the leading man on a Cavaliers team that is storming its way to a top seed in the Eastern Conference.
It can be easy to think if Mitchell doesn’t have his Superman cape on that he has taken a step back. How many times have the Cavaliers truly needed Mitchell this season where he hasn’t delivered? The team has lost four times out of twenty-five contests. Mitchell was not the sole reason for any of those outcomes. Nitpicking those losses is a waste of an exercise as is doing the same with Mitchell’s box score numbers.
